Animal Waste, Water Quality and Human Health

308Animal Waste, Water Quality and Human HealthLessons for the futurePrediction and signage systems have been shown to work and can provide timely adviceto beach users. The system can be extended to suitable bathing waters where waterquality prediction relationships can be modelled and validated.Multi-parameter statistic tools, such as decision trees, are currently being tested andare looking promising for future use as they provide more sophisticated detection ofcombined influences such as rain, wind and tide together. In addition, data inputsfrom catchment rain radar will provide better spatial coverage in tandem with moreaccurate weather forecasts allowing in-day adjustments of the predictions. Marketresearch, carried out during the initial development to gauge public perception andfeedback, was positive. It is worth repeating this at suitable intervals to assess trendsand obtain feedback from beach users to ensure that public information toolsare relevant.SEPA are planning to extend the system by adding this “nowcast” risk assessed forabout 15 more beaches to be fully operational in the course of 2012. In addition toproviding public information at appropriate locations this will be an operational toolto facilitate beach management of short term pollution events as required for therevised EU Bathing Waters Directive (2006/07/EC).8.6 FUTURE DIRECTIONS IN RISK ASSESSMENTCAPABILITIESApplication of molecular techniques and multiple water quality indicators withvariable environmental persistence and fate may yield greater confidence in faecalpollution assessment and may better inform remediation decisions (Haack et al.2008). In a study by Haack et al. (2008) bacterial genes indicated potential pig orcattle sources in eight of 18 samples from mixed or agricultural land-usewatersheds where pigs and cattle were present. Molecular epidemiological studieswere also applied in endemic areas of the Peruvian Amazon to examine thedensity and diversity of Leptospira spp. in urban and rural environmental watersamples. The outcome was the discovery of a new branch of the leptospiralphylogenetic tree, an important step in further identifying potential sources so thatfurther virulence and general characterization studies can be performed (Haake2006). Another significant advantage of some molecular techniques, such asreal-time quantitative PCR (QPCR), is the ability to enumerate pathogens inenvironmental samples. This is critical for the determination whether or not anorganism is present in an infectious dose. In a Racine, WI, USA study the carriagerate for Campylobacter spp. in urbanized gull populations at popular bathingbeaches was noted to be 14 percent but this was not quantified with respect to