2. CROP PRODUCTION AND ECONOMICS SCENARIOThe share of <strong>the</strong> agriculture sector <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> total GDP has decl<strong>in</strong>ed rapidly (24.2percent) after 1980/81 (34.8 percent) and this trend will cont<strong>in</strong>ue. By 2020, <strong>the</strong> share ofagriculture <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> total GDP of <strong>the</strong> country is likely to be reduced to 15 percent due to fasterdevelopment of non-agriculture sectors. The agriculture sector at present employs 60 percentof <strong>the</strong> country's work force. With <strong>the</strong> development of alternative sources of employment <strong>in</strong><strong>the</strong> rural areas, viz., agro <strong>in</strong>dustries, supportive <strong>in</strong>frastructure, etc., it is hoped that <strong>the</strong> shareof population dependent on agriculture will come down, though not commensurately, by <strong>the</strong>year 2020. It is hoped that 45-50 percent of <strong>the</strong> population will be dependent on agricultureby that time.India's performance dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> post-<strong>in</strong>dependence period has been a matter of prideand satisfaction. The agricultural sector has left beh<strong>in</strong>d <strong>the</strong> era of shortages and dependenceon imports and arrived at a stage of self-sufficiency and occasional surpluses. The Green,White, Yellow and Blue revolutions have been landmarks that have been claimed andrecognized <strong>the</strong> world over. India is now <strong>the</strong> largest producer of wheat, fruits, cashew nut,milk and tea <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world and second largest producer of vegetables and fruits. India is <strong>the</strong>largest producer, consumer and exporter of spices <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> world and <strong>the</strong> largest exporter ofcashew. Foodgra<strong>in</strong>s production has <strong>in</strong>creased four-fold s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>in</strong>dependence, from 51 milliontonnes (Mt) dur<strong>in</strong>g 1950/51 to 203 Mt dur<strong>in</strong>g 1998/99. The scourge of severe food shortagesis now a th<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>the</strong> past as is <strong>the</strong> dependence on imports. India's agriculture has passedthrough four dist<strong>in</strong>ct phases of strategy: a) start<strong>in</strong>g with <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>tensification of efforts <strong>in</strong>identified areas, us<strong>in</strong>g traditional technology and expansion of area dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> pre-GreenRevolution period; b) through a new strategy of use of modern <strong>in</strong>puts and high yield<strong>in</strong>gvarieties <strong>in</strong> irrigated areas dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> late sixties and <strong>the</strong> seventies, (Green Revolution); c)fur<strong>the</strong>r through a period of greater focus on management of l<strong>in</strong>kages and <strong>in</strong>frastructure, suchas, market<strong>in</strong>g, trade and <strong>in</strong>stitution build<strong>in</strong>g; and, d) to an era of liberalization and relaxationof controls dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> n<strong>in</strong>eties. The journey has been arduous but reward<strong>in</strong>g. The agriculturesector has been successful over <strong>the</strong> past five decades <strong>in</strong> keep<strong>in</strong>g pace with <strong>the</strong> ris<strong>in</strong>g fooddemand of a grow<strong>in</strong>g population (already crossed one billion <strong>in</strong> May, 2000). This sectorprovides raw materials to <strong>the</strong> major <strong>in</strong>dustries of <strong>the</strong> country which are largely agro-basedlike cotton, sugar, etc. It contributes nearly 16 percent of <strong>the</strong> country's total export.India has made tremendous progress <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> agricultural sector over <strong>the</strong> last 50 years.From 'hand to mouth' conditions <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> early sixties, we have not only become self reliant <strong>in</strong>foodgra<strong>in</strong>s but have acquired sufficient resilience to tide over <strong>the</strong> adverse conditions. Wheatproduction has <strong>in</strong>creased around 10 times and rice production 4 times dur<strong>in</strong>g this period.These achievements are <strong>the</strong> result of a policy framework of improv<strong>in</strong>g rural <strong>in</strong>frastructure<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g irrigation, research, extension, provision of agricultural <strong>in</strong>puts at reasonable prices,and market<strong>in</strong>g support through m<strong>in</strong>imum price mechanism.In spite of <strong>the</strong> impressive achievements, <strong>the</strong> Indian agricultural sector cont<strong>in</strong>ues toface poor <strong>in</strong>frastructure conditions. Less than 36 percent of <strong>the</strong> cultivated land is under anyassured irrigation system. Farmers on <strong>the</strong> rema<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g two thirds of <strong>the</strong> land are completelydependent on ra<strong>in</strong>fall, which is also greatly characterized by large variations <strong>in</strong> terms ofprecipitation both spatially and <strong>in</strong> time. For a large majority of farmers <strong>in</strong> different parts of<strong>the</strong> country ga<strong>in</strong>s from application of science and technology <strong>in</strong> agriculture have yet to berealized. As a result, <strong>the</strong> productivity levels of many major crops <strong>in</strong> India do not comparevery favourably with <strong>the</strong> yields obta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> agriculturally advanced countries (Table 1).33
Fur<strong>the</strong>r, <strong>the</strong>se factors coupled with high illiteracy constra<strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> farmer's ability to shift tomore remunerative cropp<strong>in</strong>g patterns <strong>in</strong> response to market signals. Therefore, <strong>the</strong>ir capacityto take advantage of <strong>the</strong> opportunities presented by liberalization of trade is limited. Thecountry's agriculture has ga<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> strength and resilience s<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>in</strong>dependence, althoughgrowth <strong>in</strong> agriculture is highly skewed over <strong>region</strong>s and crops. However, <strong>the</strong> agriculturesector <strong>in</strong> India is now faced with <strong>in</strong>tense <strong>in</strong>ternal and external pressures aris<strong>in</strong>g from <strong>the</strong>impact of policies of economic liberalization. Efficient and effective management ofagriculture will be crucial <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> years to come for acquir<strong>in</strong>g endur<strong>in</strong>g self-reliance andensur<strong>in</strong>g susta<strong>in</strong>able growth with an emphasis on consideration of equity.3. PATTERNS OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION3.1 <strong>Crop</strong> <strong>Diversification</strong> <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Indian PerspectiveWith <strong>the</strong> advent of modern agricultural technology, especially dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> period of<strong>the</strong> Green Revolution <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> late sixties and early seventies, <strong>the</strong>re is a cont<strong>in</strong>uous surge fordiversified agriculture <strong>in</strong> terms of crops, primarily on economic considerations. The croppattern changes, however, are <strong>the</strong> outcome of <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>teractive effect of many factors whichcan be broadly categorized <strong>in</strong>to <strong>the</strong> follow<strong>in</strong>g five groups:a) Resource related factors cover<strong>in</strong>g irrigation, ra<strong>in</strong>fall and soil fertility.b) Technology related factors cover<strong>in</strong>g not only seed, fertilizer, and water technologiesbut also those related to market<strong>in</strong>g, storage and process<strong>in</strong>g.c) Household related factors cover<strong>in</strong>g food and fodder self-sufficiency requirement aswell as <strong>in</strong>vestment capacity.d) Price related factors cover<strong>in</strong>g output and <strong>in</strong>put prices as well as trade policies ando<strong>the</strong>r economic policies that affect <strong>the</strong>se prices ei<strong>the</strong>r directly or <strong>in</strong>directly.e) Institutional and <strong>in</strong>frastructure related factors cover<strong>in</strong>g farm size and tenancyarrangements, research, extension and market<strong>in</strong>g systems and government regulatorypolicies.Obviously, <strong>the</strong>se factors are not watertight but <strong>in</strong>ter-related. For <strong>in</strong>stance, <strong>the</strong>adoption of crop technologies is <strong>in</strong>fluenced not only by resource related factors but also by<strong>in</strong>stitutional and <strong>in</strong>frastructure factors. Similarly, government policies - both supportive andregulatory <strong>in</strong> nature - affect both <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>put and output prices. Likewise, special governmentprogrammes also affect area allocation and crop composition. More importantly, both <strong>the</strong>economic liberalization policies as well as <strong>the</strong> globalization process are also exert<strong>in</strong>g strongpressures on <strong>the</strong> area allocation decision of farmers, essentially through <strong>the</strong>ir impact on <strong>the</strong>relative prices of <strong>in</strong>puts and outputs. Although <strong>the</strong> factors that <strong>in</strong>fluence <strong>the</strong> area allocationdecision of farmers are all important, <strong>the</strong>y obviously differ <strong>in</strong> terms of <strong>the</strong> relativeimportance both across farm groups and resource <strong>region</strong>s. While factors such as food andfodder self-sufficiency, farm size, and <strong>in</strong>vestment constra<strong>in</strong>ts are important <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>fluenc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>area allocation pattern among smaller farms, larger farmers with an ability to circumventresources constra<strong>in</strong>ts usually go more by economic considerations based on relative cropprices than by o<strong>the</strong>r non-economic considerations. Similarly, economic factors play arelatively stronger role <strong>in</strong> <strong>in</strong>fluenc<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> crop pattern <strong>in</strong> areas with a better irrigation and<strong>in</strong>frastructure potential. In such areas, commercialization and market networks co-evolve tomake <strong>the</strong> farmers more dynamic and highly responsive to economic impulses.34
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We know hill farmers face many prob
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Table 2. Growth of Agricultural Com
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3. PATTERN OF CROP DIVERSIFICATIONN
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With regard to success stories of c
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5. CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND PR
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It recognizes the need for a differ
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CROP DIVERSIFICATION IN THE PHILIPP
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2.3 Yield Per Hectare of Agricultur
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In coconut, diversification means t
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were used in the preparation of the
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There are a variety of factors that
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Table 1. Production Area of Commerc
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Table 3. Yield (tonnes) Per Hectare
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Table 5. Selected Macroeconomic and
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Table 7. Dominant Rice Cropping Pat
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1.2 Soils in the Crop Diversificati
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Table 1. Major Crops, Their Extents
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drained and rice on poorly drained
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Figure 3. Schematic Representation
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The potato production in the up cou
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Table 6 clearly shows that there is
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In addition to the above scenario,
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6. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND STRATEGI
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Panabokke, C.R. 1996. Soils and agr
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y promoting diversified crops inste
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Over the past few years, agricultur
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Land TenureMore than half of the Th
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The New theory is a novel approach
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Mushrooms: nang-fah mushroom (Pleur
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- Farmers can sell their rice at a
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In order to maintain the growth rat
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REFERENCESAthipanan, Withaya. 1995.
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CROP DIVERSIFICATION IN VIET NAMNgu
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3. PATTERNS OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION
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the contour with mulching using ric
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development of new crop varieties a
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• Cultivated and growing area und
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other hand, the size of an average
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4.1 Crop NutritionA major contribut
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increased from 130 million ha to 15
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in tobacco nurseries. These also he
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past experience. A sustainable prog
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diversification, taking into accoun
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The major outputs are:- Integration
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• Database and information materi
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• Business plans have been formul
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minimize such losses. The developme
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LIST OF PARTICIPANTSBANGLADESHM. En
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SRI LANKAH.P.M. GunasenaDirectorPos
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FAOR.B. SinghAssistant Director-Gen