What is most notable is <strong>the</strong> change <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> relative importance of <strong>the</strong>se factors overtime. From a very generalized perspective, Indian agriculture is <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>gly gett<strong>in</strong>g<strong>in</strong>fluenced more and more by economic factors. This need not be surpris<strong>in</strong>g becauseirrigation expansion, <strong>in</strong>frastructure development, penetration of rural markets, developmentand spread of short duration and drought resistant crop technologies have all contributed tom<strong>in</strong>imiz<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> role of non-economic factors <strong>in</strong> crop choice of even small farmers. What ismore, <strong>the</strong> reform <strong>in</strong>itiatives undertaken <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> context of <strong>the</strong> ongo<strong>in</strong>g agriculturalliberalization and globalization policies are also go<strong>in</strong>g to fur<strong>the</strong>r streng<strong>the</strong>n <strong>the</strong> role of pricerelated economic <strong>in</strong>centives <strong>in</strong> determ<strong>in</strong><strong>in</strong>g crop composition both at <strong>the</strong> micro and macrolevels. Obviously, such a chang<strong>in</strong>g economic environment will also ensure that governmentprice and trade policies will become still more powerful <strong>in</strong>struments for direct<strong>in</strong>g areaallocation decisions of farmers, align<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong>reby <strong>the</strong> crop pattern changes <strong>in</strong> l<strong>in</strong>e with <strong>the</strong>chang<strong>in</strong>g demand-supply conditions. In a condition where agricultural growth results morefrom productivity improvement than from area expansion, <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g role that pricerelated economic <strong>in</strong>centives play <strong>in</strong> crop choice can also pave <strong>the</strong> way for <strong>the</strong> next stage ofagricultural evolution where growth orig<strong>in</strong>ates more and more from value-added production.3.2 Consequences of <strong>Crop</strong> Pattern ChangesTurn<strong>in</strong>g now to <strong>the</strong> socio-economic and environmental consequences of crop patternchanges, <strong>the</strong> Green Revolution technologies have fomented, among o<strong>the</strong>r th<strong>in</strong>gs, an<strong>in</strong>creas<strong>in</strong>g tendency towards crop specialization and commercialization of agriculture. While<strong>the</strong>se developments have positive effects on land/labour productivity and net farm <strong>in</strong>come,<strong>the</strong>y have also endangered a number of undesirable side effects like reduced farmemployment and crop imbalances. Although <strong>the</strong> expansion of commercialized agriculturehas fomented new sets of rural non-farm activities and streng<strong>the</strong>ned <strong>the</strong> rural-urban growthl<strong>in</strong>kages, it has also weakened <strong>the</strong> traditional <strong>in</strong>ter-sectoral l<strong>in</strong>kages between <strong>the</strong> crop andlivestock sectors. Besides, crop pattern changes also lead to serious environmentalconsequences that take such forms as groundwater depletion, soil fertility loss andwaterlogg<strong>in</strong>g and sal<strong>in</strong>ity - all of which can reduce <strong>the</strong> productive capacity and growthpotential of agriculture over <strong>the</strong> long-term. A classical example is <strong>the</strong> rice-wheat system <strong>in</strong>Northwestern India replac<strong>in</strong>g traditional crops like pulses, oilseeds and cotton.3.2.1 <strong>Crop</strong> Pattern Changes: A Temporal AnalysisThe temporal analysis of <strong>the</strong> changes <strong>in</strong> crop pattern is observed both at <strong>the</strong> nationaland state level. For <strong>the</strong> purpose of <strong>the</strong> present study, crop pattern changes at <strong>the</strong> all Indialevel are evaluated by consider<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> area share of crops and crop groups at four time po<strong>in</strong>tscaptur<strong>in</strong>g, respectively, <strong>the</strong> triennium end<strong>in</strong>g (TE) averages of areas <strong>in</strong> 1966/67, 1976/77,1986/87 and 1996/97. These time po<strong>in</strong>ts have been selected so as to capture <strong>the</strong> major eventsand stages <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> evolution of Indian agriculture which are of direct relevance to <strong>the</strong> purposeof this study.The pre-Green Revolution situation is represented by <strong>the</strong> 1966/67 period. The post-Green Revolution situation is represented, on <strong>the</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r hand, by three sub-periods. Theseperiods have been chosen deliberately to highlight <strong>the</strong> temporal differences <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> factorscontribut<strong>in</strong>g to agricultural growth. In <strong>the</strong> first of <strong>the</strong>se three post-Green Revolution periods,i.e., 1966/67 to 1976/77, <strong>the</strong> impact of <strong>the</strong> Green Revolution has ma<strong>in</strong>ly been on wheat,especially <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> irrigation-wise better endowed Northwestern parts of India. But <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>second period, i.e., 1976/77 to 1986/87, <strong>the</strong> new technologies have expanded to o<strong>the</strong>r <strong>region</strong>s35
and also covered crops such as rice. Dur<strong>in</strong>g this period, <strong>the</strong> Sou<strong>the</strong>rn and Eastern <strong>region</strong>sshowed remarkable improvement <strong>in</strong> agricultural growth and productivity. More or lessdur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> same period, <strong>the</strong> benefits of <strong>the</strong> new crop and irrigation technologies that wereconf<strong>in</strong>ed earlier to large and medium sized farms have also started percolat<strong>in</strong>g to <strong>the</strong> smallfarms. The third period, i.e. 1986/87 to 1996/97, is characterized by a number of policychanges <strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> launch<strong>in</strong>g of <strong>the</strong> Technology Mission on Oilseeds (TMO) as well asprice support and stabilization policies for oilseed crops. Dur<strong>in</strong>g this period <strong>the</strong>re is also amarked shift <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> pattern of agricultural <strong>in</strong>vestment <strong>in</strong> favour of <strong>the</strong> private sector. Thisperiod not only covers such important policy changes as unleashed by agriculturalliberalization policies but also represents <strong>the</strong> consolidation phase of rural <strong>in</strong>frastructure.S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong>se four periods can capture well <strong>the</strong> changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> set of factors that affect croppattern, <strong>the</strong>y can provide a better analytical framework for evaluat<strong>in</strong>g both <strong>the</strong> nature andtechnical context of crop pattern shifts observed not only at <strong>the</strong> national level but also at <strong>the</strong>state level.3.2.2 <strong>Crop</strong> Pattern Changes: Analysis at <strong>the</strong> all India LevelThe analysis of crop pattern changes to be attempted at <strong>the</strong> macro level (national) willfocus on three ma<strong>in</strong> aspects. These aspects are: a) <strong>the</strong> nature and direction of area shiftsacross crops and crop groups observed through time, b) <strong>the</strong> implications of <strong>the</strong>se shifts forcrop diversification and balance <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> <strong>in</strong>ter-crop allocation of exist<strong>in</strong>g and additional areasbrought under cultivation, and c) <strong>the</strong> output and productivity impact of crop pattern changes.Temporal Changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> Area Share of <strong>Crop</strong>sThe temporal behaviour of crop pattern changes at <strong>the</strong> all India level can be seenfrom Table 2 and Table 3 that show, respectively, <strong>the</strong> area share of ma<strong>in</strong> crop groups andmajor crops for <strong>the</strong> four periods. Though obvious, it needs to be stated that <strong>the</strong> chang<strong>in</strong>garea share of crops is due as much to shift <strong>in</strong> area under o<strong>the</strong>r compet<strong>in</strong>g or alternative cropsas to <strong>the</strong> relative area allocation of fresh areas brought under cultivation. In any case, <strong>the</strong>chang<strong>in</strong>g area share of crops does capture <strong>the</strong> ongo<strong>in</strong>g changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> comparative advantagecalculus of farmers. The changes <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> comparative advantage of crops reflect, <strong>in</strong> reality,<strong>the</strong> ongo<strong>in</strong>g changes <strong>in</strong> relative prices of <strong>in</strong>puts and outputs, production conditions(<strong>in</strong>clud<strong>in</strong>g irrigation expansion), development and spread of new crop and farm technologies,extension and <strong>in</strong>put support policies and trade policies and domestic regulations. As such,<strong>the</strong> chang<strong>in</strong>g area share of crop pattern, though look<strong>in</strong>g deceptively simple, becomes a usefultool for understand<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> direction <strong>in</strong> which crop pattern changes are <strong>in</strong>fluenced by <strong>the</strong>variations <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong> comparative advantage of crops and crop groups (Tables 4 and 5).Return<strong>in</strong>g to Tables 2 and 3, both tables provide evidence for a substantial area shiftfrom cereals to non-cereals. Although cereals ga<strong>in</strong>ed a marg<strong>in</strong>al <strong>in</strong>crease <strong>in</strong> area share <strong>in</strong> <strong>the</strong>first decade of <strong>the</strong> Green Revolution, <strong>the</strong>ir area and share decl<strong>in</strong>ed gradually <strong>the</strong>reafter.Between 1966/67 and 1996/97, 3.35 percent of <strong>the</strong> gross cultivated area (GCA) -represent<strong>in</strong>g approximately about 5.7 million hectares (m/ha) - has shifted from cereal cropsto non-cereal crops. S<strong>in</strong>ce <strong>the</strong> area share of pulses taken as a group also decl<strong>in</strong>ed by 1.57percent dur<strong>in</strong>g <strong>the</strong> same period, <strong>the</strong> area share of foodgra<strong>in</strong>s as a group decl<strong>in</strong>ed by 4.92percent dur<strong>in</strong>g 1966-97. In area terms, <strong>the</strong> shift from foodgra<strong>in</strong>s to non-foodgra<strong>in</strong>s <strong>in</strong>volvesan approximate area of about 8.36 m/ha. While cereals and pulses have lost area, <strong>the</strong> majorga<strong>in</strong>ers of this area shift are <strong>the</strong> non-foodgra<strong>in</strong> crops especially oilseeds. The area share ofoilseeds as a group that has gone up by 4.08 percent accounts for about 83 percent of <strong>the</strong>36
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Table 2. Growth of Agricultural Com
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3. PATTERN OF CROP DIVERSIFICATIONN
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With regard to success stories of c
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5. CHALLENGES, OPPORTUNITIES AND PR
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It recognizes the need for a differ
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CROP DIVERSIFICATION IN THE PHILIPP
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2.3 Yield Per Hectare of Agricultur
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In coconut, diversification means t
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were used in the preparation of the
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There are a variety of factors that
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Table 1. Production Area of Commerc
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Table 3. Yield (tonnes) Per Hectare
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Table 5. Selected Macroeconomic and
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Table 7. Dominant Rice Cropping Pat
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1.2 Soils in the Crop Diversificati
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Table 1. Major Crops, Their Extents
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drained and rice on poorly drained
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Figure 3. Schematic Representation
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The potato production in the up cou
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Table 6 clearly shows that there is
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In addition to the above scenario,
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6. GOVERNMENT POLICIES AND STRATEGI
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Panabokke, C.R. 1996. Soils and agr
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y promoting diversified crops inste
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Over the past few years, agricultur
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Land TenureMore than half of the Th
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The New theory is a novel approach
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Mushrooms: nang-fah mushroom (Pleur
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- Farmers can sell their rice at a
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In order to maintain the growth rat
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REFERENCESAthipanan, Withaya. 1995.
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CROP DIVERSIFICATION IN VIET NAMNgu
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3. PATTERNS OF CROP DIVERSIFICATION
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the contour with mulching using ric
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development of new crop varieties a
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• Cultivated and growing area und
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other hand, the size of an average
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4.1 Crop NutritionA major contribut
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increased from 130 million ha to 15
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in tobacco nurseries. These also he
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past experience. A sustainable prog
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diversification, taking into accoun
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The major outputs are:- Integration
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• Database and information materi
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• Business plans have been formul
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minimize such losses. The developme
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LIST OF PARTICIPANTSBANGLADESHM. En
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SRI LANKAH.P.M. GunasenaDirectorPos
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FAOR.B. SinghAssistant Director-Gen