Biofuel co-products as livestock feed - Opportunities and challenges

An outlook on EU biofuel production and its implications for the animal feed industry 29TABLE 10Scenario projection for biofuel and co-product production in the EU in 2020Wheat Maize Barley Rape Sunflower TotalBio-ethanolBiodieselCurrent dataEU27 crop production (2009) ×10 6 t/yr 139.0 58.0 62.0 21.4 7.0EU27 crop area ×10 6 ha 25.7 8.4 13.9 6.5 3.9 58.4EU27 crop yield 2009 t/ha 5.4 6.9 4.5 3.3 1.8Crop used for biofuel production 2009 ×10 6 t/yr 3.9 2.3 0.4 — —Biofuel yield from crop t/t 0.32 0.33 0.28 0.95 0.95Vegetable oil yield t/t crop — — — 0.41 0.42Biofuel lower heating value MJ/kg 26.8 26.8 26.8 37.2 37.2EU biofuel production 2009 PJ/yr 33.4 20.6 3.1 — —Projected crop data for 2020Increase in yield per yr 1.6% 1.4% 1.5% 1.3% 1.4%Additional crop from yield ×10 6 t/yr 26.5 9.3 11.1 3.2 1.1Extra land area ×10 6 ha 1.1 0.8 -1.2 0.8 -0.5 1.0Additional crop from extra land ×10 6 t/yr 7.1 6.4 -6.3 3.0 -1.0Increase in non-biofuel crop consumption ×10 6 t/yr 1.8 0.1 0.0 — — 1.9Additional crop grown ×10 6 t/yr 31.8 15.6 4.8 6.2 0.1Additional oil available ×10 6 t/yr — — — 2.5 0.0 2.6Increase in non-biofuel oil consumption ×10 6 t/yr — — — 0.5 0.1 0.6Additional oil available for biodiesel ×10 6 t/yr — — — 2.0 -0.1 2.0Cereal displaced by co-product t/t crop 0.127 0.158 0.127 0.081 0.003Cereal displaced by co-product ×10 6 t/yr 4.6 2.9 0.7 0.5 0.0Additional biofuel crop for biofuel ×10 6 t/yr 37.0 18.5 5.5 — —Projected biofuel data for 2020Additional biofuel production in EU ×10 6 t/yr 11.8 6.2 1.6 1.9 -0.1Additional EU biofuel production PJ/yr 317 166 42 72 -2 594Projected animal feed co-product data for 2020Additional animal feed co-product ×10 6 t/yr 12.2 5.9 2.3 2.8 -0.1 23Soybean meal displaced by co-product t/t crop 0.20 0.13 0.20 0.34 0.65Reduction in soybean meal requirement ×10 6 t/yr 7.2 2.3 1.1 1.7 -0.1 12.2TABLE 11Potential crop yield growthWheat Maize Barley Rape Sunflower SoybeanEU EU EU EU EU S. AmericaYield growth BAU (1) 0.7% 0.9% 0.7% 0.8% 0.9% 1.0%Yield growth max. (1) 2.5% 1.8% 2.4% 1.7% 1.9% 1.7%Yield growth UK (2) 2.4% — — 1.6% — —Notes: BAU = Business-as-usual. Sources: (1) Data from Kindred et al., 2008. (2) Data from Spink et al., 2009.(2011). The increased crop area of 1 million ha for biofuelcrops in 2020 comes from a reduction in the area of othercereals crops, so the total EU arable crop area remainsthe same.It can be seen that crop areas are forecast to change infavour of higher yielding crops: i.e. maize and wheat willdisplace barley, while rapeseed will displace sunflower seed.Oilseed crops, such as rapeseed, are normally grown as abreak crop in the EU, so the area will be tied to a ratio ofthe cereal land area and will depend on the area of cerealcrops. The increase in yield will depend amongst otherthings on the increase in biofuel demand. Estimates ofpotential yield growth are shown in Table 11.It is important to note that these are potential yieldincreases and technology development work will be neededto obtain these yields. The yield increases in Table 11 userates of yield increases that are mid-way between theKindred et al. (2008) “business as usual” and “maximumimprovement” increases given in Table 11.Analysis of EU data shows that nearly all the changein EU demand for cereals is provided by changes in EUproduction and very little is met by changes in trade. It istherefore assumed in Table 7 that there is no change in theEU balance of trade for cereal crops. The breakdown forthe increase in crops available for biofuel production for thiscase is shown in Figure 17.