joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
7.8.4.5 Progress Towards Targets
The Public Service Agreement (PSA) 2004 target (MH Treasury 2004) was “to increase
male life expectancy to 78.6 years and increase female life expectancy to 82.5 years in
England by 2009-2011”. However, the Department of Health changed these targets
from individual life expectancy targets for PCTs to individual targets for the all age all
cause mortality rate 27 . The actual figures and year-on-year changes since 2000 are
given in Table 87 and Figure 74 together with the Department of Health‟s suggested
trajectories for Hull. The AAACMR for 2008 is 867 per 100,000 males for Hull and 572
per 100,000 females for Hull. Based on linear regression over the period 1993 to 2008,
the AAACMR has reduced by an average of 15.1 per 100,000 males and 6.2 per
100,000 females in Hull. As Hull‟s mortality rate for 2008 is higher than the target for
2008, for the next three years, if the target were to be achieved the average reduction
each year would need to be 63 per 100,000 men and 22 per 100,000 women. This
represents 4.2-fold and 3.5-fold increases on previously observed increases between
1993 and 2008. Therefore, it is very unlikely that the Department of Health‟s AAACMR
will be achieved in Hull by 2011. However, following the change in the government in
May 2010, new outcomes are now under consultation (see section 3.3.6.2 on page 52).
However, one of the outcomes is the AAACMR, so it is possible that this could be an
outcome and targets would be retained.
The updated mortality rates (involving deaths registered in 2009) are normally published
on the Compendium at the end of the following year (November or December 2010), but
as at February 2011, the estimates are not yet available and are due to be published
later on in March 2011. Local mortality rates can be calculated using the Public Health
Mortality File (PHMF) and the GP registration file. The number of deaths in the local
PHMF and the official mortality statistics will be the same, but the Compendium uses
ONS mid-year population estimates which differ from the estimates of the number of
residents from the GP registration file. Therefore, locally calculated figures differ slightly
from the official figures published in the Compendium, with mortality rates likely to be
slightly lower with locally estimated figures. In the absence of the official statistics, the
locally derived estimates can provide a guide.
27 The methodology used to change the life expectancy targets to AAACMR targets was seriously flawed
statistically, and further contained numerical errors for a very small number of PCTs. Hull was not one of
the PCTs with errors, but despite the methodological flaws, it will make relatively little difference to the
achievability of the targets for Hull.
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 223