joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

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Number and prevalence on COPD QOF register over time
2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
N % N % N % N % N % N %
B81688 2,009 47 2.33 41 2.01 47 2.26 57 2.71 64 3.03 72 3.58
Y02344 1,645 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 46 2.33 39 2.37
B81027 5,976 255 4.05 228 3.80 211 3.56 202 3.38 194 3.22 209 3.50
B81040 16,805 271 1.65 232 1.41 270 1.61 283 1.67 295 1.75 314 1.87
B81047 7,377 115 1.53 123 1.67 129 1.76 121 1.67 123 1.70 136 1.84
B81089 3,583 37 1.16 37 1.14 42 1.26 45 1.33 57 1.61 65 1.81
B81631 3,425 65 2.01 93 2.97 107 3.37 110 3.38 122 3.57 138 4.03
B81683 1,644 33 2.15 34 2.14 34 2.23 39 2.69 39 2.57 44 2.68
Y02896 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 5 1.46
B81017 6,800 230 3.13 214 3.05 220 3.04 211 2.91 189 2.77 219 3.22
B81018 6,602 217 3.31 212 3.24 210 3.09 199 2.96 200 3.00 232 3.51
B81032 2,478 35 1.15 31 1.04 29 1.05 36 1.33 49 1.86 39 1.57
B81046 9,068 134 1.57 141 1.67 150 1.67 171 1.95 192 2.15 199 2.19
B81692 1,814 7 0.37 13 0.65 17 0.92 25 1.41 28 1.56 35 1.93
Y00955 2,556 N/A N/A 15 2.24 36 2.17 46 2.07 54 2.12 99 3.87
Y02748 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 3 5.00
The Association of Public Health Observatories has produced estimates of the number
of people in each PCT with have diagnosed COPD. Whist this is useful, it is probably
more useful to examine this at practice level. Doncaster PCT has created a model
which can be used to produce the estimated number of people with diagnosed COPD
(Doncaster PCT 2008).
In general when such models have been produced, the model is based on research
undertaken elsewhere in the UK examining the prevalence of diagnosed disease in the
community, which has then been modelled and applied to different populations such as
those living in a particular PCT area. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimates depend
on the quality of the initial research and the modelling itself. If the original research did
not include very deprived areas, it is very difficult to generalise and apply the model to
very deprived areas like Hull. Furthermore, there are many reasons why the prevalence
could differ among practices (see section 12.13 on page 782 for more information).
Further information about problems associated with models can be found in the
Association of Public Health Observatories Technical Briefing (Association of Public
Health Observatories 2011) and in section 12.1 on page 770. Further information
about problems associated with models can be found in the Association of Public Health
Observatories Technical Briefing (Association of Public Health Observatories 2011) and
in section 12.1 on page 770. Therefore, just because practices have a particularly low
prevalence or a relatively large difference between the registers and the model, it does
not necessarily mean that they are performing badly in any way relative to other general
practices. Nevertheless, a comparison of the differences between the modelled
prevalence and the practice list registers can act as a starting point for investigation.
Practices with a low prevalence or a relatively large difference between the model and
the register estimates can be examined further and considered in relation to patient
characteristics using local knowledge. Differences might just reflect that the model is
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 616