joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
8.9 Drug and Substance Abuse
8.9.1 Prevalence
8.9.1.1 Adults
It is difficult to estimate the number of problem drug users, and there are generally two
methods used. The multiple indicator method is a regression analysis which produces a
modelled estimate using information typically drawn from health (e.g. client lists supplied
by drug treatment agencies) and/or criminal justice (e.g. police records and probation
data) sources, but some of the information included in the model is modelled itself using
the capture-recapture method 46 .
More recent estimates are available for 2008/2009 from the University of Glasgow which
is presented in Hull‟s Adult Substance Misuse Needs Assessment 2011/2012 (Hull
Community Safety Partnership 2011). The numbers of problematic drug users 47 for Hull
for 2008/2009 was estimated to be 3,464 in their model which was a reduction of 185
from 2006/2007. The overall prevalence was estimated to be 19.2 per 1,000 population
aged 15-64 years (assuming a population of 180,800 for those aged 15-64 years). A
significant change has been seen in the prevalence rates for the opiate-using drug
group. The prevalence rate fell for opiate use from 20.3 to 16.3 per 1,000 population
aged 15-64 years (with estimated numbers falling by 554 from 3,506 to 2,952).
However, the prevalence of crack rates remained unchanged.
The estimated number of drug users are given in Table 154 for 2006/2007 and
2008/2009 (with 95% confidence intervals for the most recent year).
Despite a reduction in the rate, Hull‟s prevalence of problem drug users is the 7 th highest
in the country. The rate of opiates use in Hull is the 5 th highest nationally, and the crack
prevalence is the 41 st highest nationally 48 . Figures are not available for 2008/2009
regarding the injecting of drugs, however historically these rates have been high in Hull
and continue to remain high.
46 Hay (Hay, Gannon et al. 2006) describes the method “Capture-recapture methods were first developed
over a century ago to estimate the size of animal or fish populations. In its basic form the method involves
capturing a sample of animals, marking and then releasing them. A second sample is then captured; the
population of marked animals in this second sample is assumed to be equivalent to the proportion of
animals in the population that were in the first sample. Thus if 100 fish were caught, marked and
released, and a further sample of fish is caught of which 10% were previously marked, then the 100 fish in
the first sample is equivalent to 10% of the population, hence the population size is 1,000”.
47 „Problem Drug Use‟ refers to use of opiates and/or crack cocaine, including those who inject either of
these drugs. It does not include the use of cocaine in a powder form, amphetamine, ecstasy or cannabis,
or injecting by people who do not use opiates or cocaine. Although many opiate and/or crack users also
use these drugs it is very difficult to identify exclusive users of these drugs from the available data
sources.
48 Presumably out of 354 local authorities (pre April 2009) or 326 current local authorities (as at April
2009), but report does not say geographical areas being rated or whether it is England or UK.
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 367