joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
motivated people will tend to have increased mobility. This also affects the
employment profile of Hull.
Due to Hull‟s location, people may be less likely to influenced by factors and
changes occurring elsewhere in other geographical areas.
It is possible to model some potential changes in mortality to assess the effects on
SMRs and the AAACMR. Table 88 illustrates that some relatively large changes in the
number of deaths need to occur relative to the recent level of deaths (2005-2007) with
much smaller relative effects noticed on the SMR and AAACMR. The local Public
Health Mortality File and GP registration file (to estimate resident population) have been
used in these calculations, and therefore, the estimates are not equivalent to those
derived nationally from the Compendium. Furthermore, for the SMR, the effect is likely
to be lower than this as if the mortality rate in Hull changes by the magnitude noted in
the first column it is likely that changes will also be occurring in England. If this is the
case, then the mortality rates used to calculate the SMR will change as the mortality rate
in the standard population has changed. Whilst initially, it does not appear realistic that
a 50% reduction in the number of deaths occurring under the age of 14 years would
have such a small influence on the AAACMR, it must be remembered that the absolute
number of deaths in this age group is very small. There were 17 deaths to those aged
under 14 years that were registered during the year 2007 out of a total of 2,555 deaths
for all ages. Therefore, if this number were more than halved to eight deaths this would
mean that the total number of deaths in Hull would fall from 2,555 to 2,547 which is a
relatively small difference. Similarly, the total number of deaths registered during 2007
for Hull residents aged under 65 years was 515, so a reduction of 10% would result in
the total number deaths falling by 52 from 2,555 to 2,503; again a relatively small
change in the total number of deaths.
Table 88: Changes in the number of deaths and influence on SMRs and AAACMR
Reduction in deaths by age Effect on SMR Effect on AAACMR
Local deaths 0-14 yrs falls by 50% From 115.6 to 115.2 (–0.3%) From 816 to 812 (–0.5%)
Local deaths 0-65 yrs falls by 10% From 115.6 to 110.2 (–5%) From 816 to 773 (–5%)
Local deaths 0-65 yrs falls by 20% From 115.6 to 104.7 (–9%) From 816 to 729 (–11%)
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 227