joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
The Doncaster PCT model estimates the number of people with CHD by assuming the
national prevalence of CHD for each gender and 10-year age band (step 1), adjusting
the resulting estimates by the all age CHD mortality ratio (e.g. Hull‟s CHD 2006-2008
SMR was 123 so the stage 1 numbers would be increased by 23 (step 2) and by then
adjusting the resulting estimates by a deprivation score (UV67 derived from 2001
Census information) produced at practice level (step 3). This practice deprivation score
(from step 3) is first divided by the „expected‟ (UV67) score for Hull to avoid „doublecounting‟
the effect of deprivation (step 2 and step 3 both adjusted for deprivation). The
results of the modelling and the actual diagnosed numbers of patients with CHD are
given in Table 194. The model does not necessarily represent the actual number of
people who should be diagnosed with CHD for each practice; it is only a guide. The
characteristics of each practice differ and need to be considered. Furthermore, it does
not estimate the number of people with undiagnosed CHD. In Hull, as mentioned
previously, it is anticipated that there could be relatively large levels of undiagnosed
disease compared to more affluent areas where people are more likely to present to
their GP with symptoms, as well as having fewer risk factors.
The original model was developed by John Soady and Bruce Laurence from Sheffield
Health Authority, with staff at Doncaster PCT updating the model for more recent Health
Survey for England prevalence information and using a different method of adjusting for
deprivation.
The prevalence on the disease registers used to form the official QOF information is
extracted from the Quality Management and Analysis System (QMAS) at the end of
March. However, this information can be extracted at any time point from the local
QMAS system and the information in Table 194 gives this information as at September
2010.
Table 194: Actual diagnosed and modelled CHD numbers, September 2010
Code Practice name List size
Numbers with CHD
(Sept QMAS Sept Modelled Difference
2010) 2010 estimate
(actual (guide
diagnosed) only)
B81035 Dr WGT Sande & Partners 6,160 196 307 -111
B81056 Springhead Medical Centre 13,813 505 628 -123
B81104 Dr JK Nayar 6,553 26 44 -18
B81635 Dr G Dave 2,979 185 167 18
B81662 Mizzen Road Surgery 1,720 80 109 -29
Y01200 The Calvert Practice 1,815 85 97 -12
Y02747 Kingswood Surgery 1,380 12 15 -3
B81020 Dr PC Mitchell & Partners 7,436 275 345 -70
B81021 Faith House Surgery 7,372 289 352 -63
B81075 Dr MK Mallik 2,197 70 164 -94
B81085 Dr JW Richardson & Ptnrs 5,302 276 313 -37
B81094 Dr AK Datta 1,790 46 76 -30
B81095 Dr Cook 4,145 159 241 -82
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 450