joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
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Number and prevalence on serious mental ill health QOF register over time
2004/05* 2005/06* 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
N % N % N % N % N % N %
B81675 9,476 45 1.02 42 0.98 41 0.85 49 0.91 53 0.55 67 0.71
B81685 2,444 12 0.47 14 0.53 14 0.54 13 0.51 11 0.43 11 0.45
B81688 2,009 10 0.50 10 0.49 11 0.53 12 0.57 13 0.62 13 0.65
Y02344 1,645 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 16 0.81 14 0.85
B81027 5,976 41 0.65 33 0.55 101 1.71 72 1.20 74 1.23 75 1.26
B81040 16,805 29 0.18 34 0.21 74 0.44 64 0.38 65 0.38 64 0.38
B81047 7,377 106 1.41 103 1.39 108 1.48 109 1.51 99 1.37 96 1.30
B81089 3,583 19 0.59 16 0.49 12 0.36 14 0.41 19 0.54 20 0.56
B81631 3,425 1 0.03 3 0.10 17 0.54 17 0.52 21 0.61 23 0.67
B81683 1,644 11 0.72 12 0.76 13 0.85 9 0.62 9 0.59 10 0.61
Y02896 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 8 2.33
B81017 6,800 26 0.35 23 0.33 75 1.04 94 1.30 97 1.42 104 1.53
B81018 6,602 7 0.11 25 0.38 38 0.56 37 0.55 29 0.43 43 0.65
B81032 2,478 12 0.39 13 0.44 38 1.37 43 1.58 51 1.94 52 2.10
B81046 9,068 54 0.63 52 0.61 67 0.74 70 0.80 77 0.86 80 0.88
B81692 1,814 112 5.96 105 5.27 73 3.94 84 4.72 77 4.28 76 4.19
Y00955 2,556 N/A N/A 9 1.34 21 1.27 41 1.84 54 2.12 51 2.00
Y02748 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 1 1.67
*Note that definition of indicator changed between 2005/06 and 2006/07 so that the prevalence estimates
are not directly comparable between the first two years and the last four years.
Doncaster PCT has created a model which can be used to produce the estimated
number of people with diagnosed severe mental health problems (Doncaster PCT
2008).
In general when such models have been produced, the model is based on research
undertaken elsewhere in the UK examining the prevalence of diagnosed disease in the
community, which has then been modelled and applied to different populations such as
those living in a particular PCT area. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimates depend
on the quality of the initial research and the modelling itself. If the original research did
not include very deprived areas, it is very difficult to generalise and apply the model to
very deprived areas like Hull. Furthermore, there are many reasons why the prevalence
could differ among practices (see section 12.13 on page 782 for more information).
Further information about problems associated with models can be found in the
Association of Public Health Observatories Technical Briefing (Association of Public
Health Observatories 2011) and in section 12.1 on page 770. Therefore, just because
practices have a particularly low prevalence or a relatively large difference between the
registers and the model, it does not necessarily mean that they are performing badly in
any way relative to other general practices. Nevertheless, a comparison of the
differences between the modelled prevalence and the practice list registers can act as a
starting point for investigation. Practices with a low prevalence or a relatively large
difference between the model and the register estimates can be examined further and
considered in relation to patient characteristics using local knowledge. Differences
might just reflect that the model is not a very good fit for Hull. For reference, the mean
age of practice patients (Table 28) and mean deprivation scores (Table 49) for each
practice.
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 701