joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
all men and women aged 65-69, 70-74, 75-79, 80-84 and 85+ years respectively have
severe depression. These estimates have been used to provide estimates for the total
number of people aged 65+ years with any type of depression and severe depression
using the ONS population projections. It is likely that these estimates are applied from
national estimates without adjusting for deprivation, therefore, Hull‟s prevalence and
resulting estimates could be higher than those presented in Table 388.
Table 388: POPPI – population projections to 2030 for those aged 65+ years in Hull with
depression
Severity of
depression
Any
Severe
Gender and
age (years)
Hull’s population estimates and projections of
people with a depression
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Males 65-69 267 365 342 383 435
Males 70-74 304 283 386 373 414
Males 75-79 207 212 207 283 271
Males 80-84 204 243 272 272 369
Males 85+ 77 92 122 148 173
Total males 1,057 1,195 1,329 1,458 1,662
Females 65-69 523 687 643 698 796
Females 70-74 447 418 542 513 561
Females 75-79 439 428 417 546 514
Females 80-84 304 304 304 294 396
Females 85+ 344 366 400 444 488
Total females 2,056 2,203 2,305 2,495 2,754
Persons 65-69 238 313 295 325 370
Persons 70-74 144 136 181 171 189
Persons 75-79 270 266 256 347 329
Persons 80-84 162 174 183 180 243
Persons 85+ 179 199 230 269 304
Total persons 992 1,087 1,144 1,292 1,435
From a recent report examining the prevalence of dementia (Dementia UK 2007), the
estimated numbers of people and projected numbers of people with dementia in Hull is
given in Table 389. Based on this report, the prevalence is less than 2% for those aged
65-69 years, but increases to 2-3% (depending on gender) for those aged 70-74 years,
5-7% for those aged 75-79 years, 10-13% for those aged 80-84 years and 20-25% for
those aged 85+ years (with the higher prevalence for men aged under 80 years but the
higher prevalence for women aged 80+ years). In Hull, there was a higher mortality rate
from dementia for people living in the most deprived areas (Figure 243) although there
was no association between diagnosed dementia from GP registers and deprivation
(Figure 241). It is not known if the rate of undiagnosed dementia for people living in the
most deprived areas is higher with more people undiagnosed, or if there is a coding
issue with regards to the cause of death. However, if an association does exist between
deprivation and the prevalence of dementia, it is likely that the numbers predicted to
have dementia will be higher for Hull than those presented in Table 389 due to Hull‟s
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 747