joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
10.1.2.10 Progress Towards Targets
The target relating to CHD within the local World Class Commissioning (WCC) Strategy
was to reduce the all-age directly standardised mortality rate (DSR) per 100,000
Standard European Population for CHD (ICD 10: I20-I25) between 2004-2006 and
2011-2013 at a rate that is 20% higher than the average annual reduction seen in
England from 1995-97 to 200406 58 . Between 1995-97 and 2006-08, England‟s all-age
DSR for CHD fell by an average of 7.4 per 100,000 persons per annum, whereas the
decrease in Hull was 7.7 per 100,000 persons, so the gap has decreased slightly.
However, for 2006-08, Hull failed to achieve its target (Table 203).
The updated mortality rates (involving deaths registered in 2009) are normally published
on the Compendium at the end of the following year (November or December 2010), but
as at February 2011, the estimates are not yet available and are due to be published
later on in March 2011. Local mortality rates can be calculated using the Public Health
Mortality File (PHMF) and the GP registration file. The number of deaths in the local
PHMF and the official mortality statistics will be the same, but the Compendium uses
ONS mid-year population estimates which differ from the estimates of the number of
residents from the GP registration file. Therefore, locally calculated figures differ slightly
from the official figures published in the Compendium, with mortality rates likely to be
slightly lower with locally estimated figures. In the absence of the official statistics, the
locally derived estimates can provide a guide. It is unlikely that the rates will differ
substantially, and it is likely that the official estimate will be slightly higher due to the
difference in the population estimates, therefore, it would appear that Hull has failed to
achieve its target for 2007-09.
Following the change in the government in May 2010, new outcomes are now under
consultation (see section 3.3.6.2 on page 52). One of the outcomes proposed is the
under 75 mortality rate from circulatory disease, but there is no mention of a separate
target for CHD. Therefore, it is possible that this outcome measure will no longer be a
key outcome measure unless it is retained locally.
58 Target given for 2011-13 within WCC strategy, but annual targets calculated here with equal increase
between 2004-06 and 2011-13 (updated WCC strategy may not include staged rather than equal size
improvements).
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