joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

Interative Hull Atlas: www.hullpublichealth.org/Pages/hull_atlas.htm More information: www.jsnaonline.org and www.hullpublichealth.org
Table 386: POPPI – population projections to 2030 for those aged 65+ years in Hull with
a limiting long-term illness or disability
Age (years) Hull’s population estimates and projections of people with a
limiting long-term illness or disability who live alone
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
65-69 1,200 1,579 1,490 1,642 1,869
70-74 1,665 1,573 2,091 1,980 2,183
75-79 2,025 1,999 1,920 2,604 2,472
80-84 1,781 1,913 2,012 1,979 2,671
85+ 1,819 2,017 2,333 2,728 3,084
Total 65-74 years 2,865 3,152 3,581 3,622 4,052
Total 75+ years 5,625 5,929 6,265 7,311 8,227
10.13.1.8 Predicted Numbers with Various Health Needs
Table 387 gives the estimated number and population projections for those aged 65+
years in Hull who are expected to have learning disabilities.
These predictions are based on prevalence rates in a report by Emerson and Hatton
(Emerson and Hatton 2004). The authors take the prevalence base rates and adjust
these rates to take account of ethnicity (i.e. the increased prevalence of learning
disabilities in South Asian communities) and of mortality (i.e. both increased survival
rates of young people with severe and complex disabilities and reduced mortality among
older adults with learning disabilities). Therefore, figures are based on an estimate of
prevalence across the national population; locally this will produce an over-estimate in
communities with a low South Asian community, and an under-estimate in communities
with a high South Asian community.
Table 387: POPPI – population projections to 2030 for those aged 65+ years in Hull with
learning disabilities
Gender and age
(years)
Hull’s population estimates and projections of people with
learning disabilities
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
65-69 402 450 502 512 574
70-74 261 268 269 323 356
75+ 87 97 114 134 153
Total 65+ 749 816 885 969 1,083
Table 388 gives the estimated number and population projections for those aged 65+
years in Hull who are expected to have depression. McDougall et al (McDougall, Kvaal
et al. 2007) estimates that between 5% and 10% of men and between 9% and 11% of
women aged 65+ years have depression and that 2.5%, 1.6%, 3.5%, 3.0% and 3.9% of
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