joint strategic needs assessment foundation profile - JSNA

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Number and prevalence on heart failure QOF register over time
2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10
N % N % N % N %
Y02344 1,645 N/A N/A N/A N/A 10 0.51 7 0.43
B81027 5,976 61 1.03 61 1.02 57 0.95 58 0.97
B81040 16,805 72 0.43 67 0.39 64 0.38 60 0.36
B81047 7,377 48 0.66 44 0.61 35 0.48 30 0.41
B81089 3,583 17 0.51 18 0.53 27 0.76 31 0.87
B81631 3,425 14 0.44 14 0.43 14 0.41 12 0.35
B81683 1,644 11 0.72 13 0.90 15 0.99 19 1.16
Y02896 343 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 2 0.58
B81017 6,800 66 0.91 65 0.90 56 0.82 51 0.75
B81018 6,602 43 0.63 37 0.55 32 0.48 35 0.53
B81032 2,478 14 0.51 16 0.59 12 0.46 9 0.36
B81046 9,068 60 0.67 60 0.68 58 0.65 59 0.65
B81692 1,814 1 0.05 2 0.11 1 0.06 2 0.11
Y00955 2,556 12 0.72 14 0.63 15 0.59 15 0.59
Y02748 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 0 0.00
Doncaster PCT has created a model which can be used to produce the estimated
number of people with diagnosed heart failure (Doncaster PCT 2008).
In general when such models have been produced, the model is based on research
undertaken elsewhere in the UK examining the prevalence of diagnosed disease in the
community, which has then been modelled and applied to different populations such as
those living in a particular PCT area. Therefore, the accuracy of the estimates depend
on the quality of the initial research and the modelling itself. If the original research did
not include very deprived areas, it is very difficult to generalise and apply the model to
very deprived areas like Hull. Furthermore, there are many reasons why the prevalence
could differ among practices (see section 12.13 on page 782 for more information).
Further information about problems associated with models can be found in the
Association of Public Health Observatories Technical Briefing (Association of Public
Health Observatories 2011) and in section 12.1 on page 770. Further information
about problems associated with models can be found in the Association of Public Health
Observatories Technical Briefing (Association of Public Health Observatories 2011) and
in section 12.1 on page 770. Therefore, just because practices have a particularly low
prevalence or a relatively large difference between the registers and the model, it does
not necessarily mean that they are performing badly in any way relative to other general
practices. Nevertheless, a comparison of the differences between the modelled
prevalence and the practice list registers can act as a starting point for investigation.
Practices with a low prevalence or a relatively large difference between the model and
the register estimates can be examined further and considered in relation to patient
characteristics using local knowledge. Differences might just reflect that the model is
not a very good fit for Hull. For reference, the mean age of practice patients (Table 28)
and mean deprivation scores (Table 49) for each practice may be examined.
The results of the modelling and the actual diagnosed numbers of patients with heart
failure are given in Table 216. The model does not necessarily represent the actual
Joint Strategic Needs Assessment Foundation Profile – Hull Health Profile: Release 3. March 2011. 486