Water for people.pdf - WHO Thailand Digital Repository

2 0 0 / C H A L L E N G E S T O L I F E A N D W E L L - B E I N GSecuring Food for a Growing World PopulationTable 8.2: Per capita food consumption from 1965 to 2030 (kcal/person/day)1965 1975 1985 1998 2015 2030World 2,358 2,435 2,655 2,803 2,940 3,050Developing countries 2,054 2,152 2,450 2,681 2,850 2,980Sub-Saharan Africa 2,058 2,079 2,057 2,195 2,360 2,540Near East/North Africa 2,290 2,591 2,953 3,006 3,090 3,170Latin America/Caribbean 2,393 2,546 2,689 2,826 2,980 3,140South Asia 2,017 1,986 2,205 2,403 2,700 2,900East Asia 1,957 2,105 2,559 2,921 3,060 3,190Industrial countries 2,947 3,065 3,206 3,380 3,440 3,500Transition countries 3,222 3,385 3,379 2,906 3,060 3,180There is a global food security situation that is steadily improving, with a consistentlyincreasing global level of food consumption per capita.Source: FAO, 2002.Per capita food consumption, expressed in kcal/person/day, is used asthe indicator of food intake. The evolution of per capita food consumptionin 1965 and 2030 is given in table 8.2, based on historical data and onFAO projections for the years 2015 and 2030.Table 8.2 and figure 8.2 show a global food security situation that isconsistently improving, with a steady increase in per capita foodconsumption at the global level as well as at the level of developingcountries. Demand for food tends to saturate at the level of3,500 kcal/person/day. Figure 8.2 and table 8.2 also clearly show thatper capita food consumption in sub-Saharan Africa remaineddisappointingly low over the last forty-five years although recentimprovement trends are expected to continue. It should be noted thatgains in overall food consumption are not necessarily translated intocommensurate declines in the absolute numbers of undernourishedpeople, in particular when there is high population growth.The main sources of food supplyThe main source of food for the population of the world isagriculture. The term agriculture, as broadly used here, also includeslivestock husbandry, managed fisheries (aquaculture) and forestry.The composition of meals changes gradually as demand for foodstrengthens and lifestyles change. For those that can afford it, manyproducts that are grown out of season or are exotic now appear ontheir local market. What agriculture produces is driven by consumerdemand, and changes in consumer preferences have an influence onthe water needed for food production.It has been estimated that unmanaged natural systems couldprovide food for 600 million people, one tenth of the current worldpopulation (Mazoyer and Roudart, 1998). Thus, about 90 percent ofthe present world population could not be sustained withoutagriculture. Yet while few people live from only fishing, gathering andhunting, these unmanaged, or only loosely managed, natural foodsystems provide a strategically important contribution to the nutritionFood consumption (kcal/person/day)Figure 8.2: Per capita food consumption from 1965 to 20303,5003,0002,5002,000Threshold1,5001965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030WorldDeveloping countriesSub-Saharan AfricaNear East/North AfricaLatin America & the CaribbeanSouth AsiaEast AsiaIndustrial countriesTransition countriesThis figure shows a global food security situation that is consistently improving, atboth global and developing country levels. The threshold of 2,700 kcal is taken asan indicator of the large proportion of people still affected by malnutrition.Source: FAO, 2002.of indigenous people as well as to the existence and survival of manydisplaced, poor and marginal people. Except for marine fisheries,which are monitored, the diffuse reality of food resources directlyobtained from natural ecosystems escapes most data collection and isusually not reflected in agricultural and economic statistics.Therefore, the bulk of global food production (cereals, oils,livestock and fish) is dependent upon a whole range of agriculturalsystems in which water is a critical factor of production (FAO/WorldBank, 2001).Major cropsThe prominent role of cereals and oil cropsCereals are by far the most important source of total foodconsumption as measured in calories. In developing countries,consumption of cereals thirty years ago was 141 kilograms(kg)/person/year, representing 61 percent of total calories. Atpresent it is 173 kg/person/year and provides 56 percent ofcalories. Thus, cereal use has increased, but less than othercomponents of food intake. The fact that the growth of globaldemand for cereals is declining reflects diet diversification, as morecountries achieve higher levels of nutrition. However, it is expectedthat cereals will continue to supply more than 50 percent of thefood consumed in the foreseeable future.