Water for people.pdf - WHO Thailand Digital Repository

2 8 2 / M A N A G E M E N T C H A L L E N G E S : S T E W A R D S H I P A N D G O V E R N A N C EMitigating Risk and Coping with UncertaintyBox 11.4: Political economyPoliticians have the incentive to balance allocation ofbudgets in a way that preserves political support. Politicalsustainability is important, and security and stability,together with distributional goals, make up importantaspects of political agendas and are often given higherpriority than efficiency. Efficiency losses to society and themicrocosts imposed on the public could therefore besubstantial, but are often disregarded. In the politicalenvironment, therefore, policy often responds more toshorter-term concerns than to the long-termconsequences to society. The objective of policy selectionclearly differs from maximizing efficiency. One practicalconsequence is that, to be effective, policy analysis andformulation need to be adapted to the preferences ofpolicy-makers.Source: Based on Just and Netanyahu, 1998.economic benefits, as well as the reduction in the loss of human livesand improvements in welfare and social stability. This potential isparticularly great in the fragile developing and transition economies.Strategies for the management of risk can be broadly classifiedinto two categories:■ private risk encompassing well-defined risks that can be coveredby insurance policies; and■ common risk covering wide-ranging socio-economic factors thatultimately must be borne by governments.Private individuals, communities and businesses must be encouraged tocarry as much risk as possible within the constraints of their resourcesand abilities to manage the risks. However, in all societies there willalways be categories of common risks that can only be effectivelymanaged by national or international institutions. These include theimpacts of events that lead to wide-scale homelessness, abandonmentof property and loss of common environmental resources. Within thewater sector, the challenge is to commit resources to the accurateidentification of these risks, to prepare robust management strategiesand to be able to respond in the event of natural or man-madedisasters. The reduction in the exposure to risk can be recognized as areal socio-economic benefit that will influence the actions of peopleand promote sustainable growth and development. While supported bytechnically advanced methodology, programmes and investments,water sector risk management in terms of political economy is stillbased on reactive approaches and therefore has limited politicalcurrency. At the same time, however, the recognition of risk issometimes already seen to be in contention with economicdevelopment and environmental conservation and could lesseneconomic prospects and competitiveness and repel investments.Managing floodsHazard potential in flooding is expressed as the relationshipbetween the magnitude of the flood and its probability ofoccurrence. Vulnerability is a function of the land use at thelocation at risk of flooding.Assessment of the probability of floods requires several years ofhigh flow records and is also constrained by the uncertainty that thesame high flow patterns might not persist into the future. There isevidence and growing concern that increased emissions of carbondioxide and other greenhouse gases are producing changes in theworld’s climate. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) stated that ‘projections using the Special Report of EmissionScenarios of Future Climate indicate a tendency for increased floodand drought risks for many areas under most scenarios’ (IPCC, 2002).This raises the concern of uncertainty over the challenge ofpredicting future extreme runoff conditions and meeting the need foralternative approaches for managing risk under uncertainty.Both droughts and floods impact directly on human well-beingand health, especially in urban and rural areas where water supplyand drainage facilities are inadequate. The most vulnerable arealways the poor – those living in crowded, poorly protected periurbansettlements, and subsistence farmers in rural areas – whocannot afford to protect themselves, or are ignorant about how tocope with the impact of changes in their environment.Apart from the major threat of climate change, alterations toland use within the basin can affect the magnitude and frequencyof floods. Urbanization of the land increases runoff and floodpeaks, as observed in the Greater Tokyo region for example, whereurbanized areas expanded from 13 percent to 20 percent between1974 and 2000 (see box 11.5).Planning is an important non-structural measure for floodmitigation, covering the entire period from pre- to post-disaster. Allparties, ranging from governmental and civil organizations to thelocal citizen, should know their roles and responsibilities. Everyoneshould also know exactly what is needed in terms of supplies andprovisions, have them ready, and know how to respond when thehazard occurs. As part of this process, there should be a wellmaintainedcontingency plan and vigilant flood forecast warning andalert programme. Experience has shown that local governments andcitizens must be involved throughout the planning andimplementation stages of such systems for them to be effective.