Water for people.pdf - WHO Thailand Digital Repository

M I T I G A T I N G R I S K A N D C O P I N G W I T H U N C E R T A I N T Y / 2 8 7play a central part also in management and safeguarding of water,which makes it critical to involve them at all levels of the decisionmakingprocess. In some cultures, it is important to recognize thatresponse to flood warning is largely gender-dependent: there areexamples of married women ignoring flood warnings in the absenceof their husbands.Risk and uncertainty may exacerbate existing tensions in other waystoo. In transition countries in particular, risk and uncertainty can worsenpolitical differences and regional instability arising from disputes overshared water resources. In this case, sharing the risks becomes just asimportant as allocating of water resources and its associated benefits.Box 11.7 presents the example of common risk in water resources andthe prospect for sharing the common risk between the non-stabilizedpost-Soviet economies in transition in Central AsiaAccountability, Monitoring andIndicatorsIn the present situation when the consequences of water-relateddisasters in all regions are severe, there is a need for practicalindicators to support inter-regional comparison for the purpose oftracking trends and progress on management targets (policies)for reducing populations at risk from water-related hazards. Inorder to track progress and the sufficiency of policy, monitoringmust be strengthened.The indicators can be expected to foster country awareness andresponsibility towards a coherent country-based approach to globaland regional monitoring of water-related risk and uncertainty.Table 11.4 gives examples of low-cost indicators focused on risklosses and progress of risk reduction. The country values of lossesand benefits need to be adjusted for local income and fluctuationsin local currency.Box 11.7: Shared regional waterresources in economies in transitionThe risk for unexpected crises in transboundary watersystems, where regulation is based on voluntarycooperation between sovereign states, is generally highand complicated to manage, even in stable andindustrialized regions. In transitional and unstable regionsand economies that are experiencing emerging andunanticipated risk, social instability and conflict, the needfor a risk-based approach to the management of waterresources is even more important.In the post-Soviet central Asia subregion where mostof the water resources are shared between the new statesof Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan andUzbekistan, there is evidence of emerging undefined highrisk and instability. This unstable and high-risk situationshould allow for the development of joint management ofcommon risk rather than engender further conflictivehydropolitical and development issues in the subregion. Ajoint risk-based approach for the management of theshared water resources will allow the central Asiancountries to engage in joint preventive development andfocus on identifying and managing emerging water risk tosupport and ensure regional stability.Table 11.4: Examples of low-cost indicators focused on risk losses and progress of risk reductionRisk lossesPast (10 years), present and future (25 years) losses (at differentlevels: basin, country, region, globally)Risk reduction• in human life (number/year) • legal and institutional provisions for risk-based management (established/notestablished)• in real and relative social and economic values (total losses, percent of • budget allocation for water risk mitigation (total and percent of totalGNP, growth, investments and development benefits)budgets/year)• population exposed to water-related risk (number of people/year, income groups) • risk reduction in flood plains (percent of total flood plain populations)• other than water-related risks (percent of losses from seismic, fire, industrial • risk reduction and preparedness action plans formulated (percent of totaland civil stability risk)number of countries)• risk-based resource allocation (country, international organizations, yes/no)Source: Prepared for the World Water Assessment Programme (WWAP) by P.E. O’Connell; C.G. Kilsby; H.J. Fowler, 2001.