Water for people.pdf - WHO Thailand Digital Repository

2 0 2 / C H A L L E N G E S T O L I F E A N D W E L L - B E I N GSecuring Food for a Growing World Populationattainment of a fairly high level of consumption. Intensive forms oflivestock production have led to a strong demand for cereals used asanimal feed and production is rising steadily to meet this demand.Fisheries and the growing importance of aquacultureAverage world per capita consumption of fish reached about 16.3 kgper year in 1999, with large differences ranging from countries withvirtually no fish consumption to countries that reach over 100 kg peryear. Per capita consumption could grow to 19 to 20 kg by 2030,raising total fish use to 150–160 million tons. Of the total worldfisheries and aquaculture production in 2000 (130 million tons), some74 percent (97 million tons) was available for direct humanconsumption as food fish. The remainder was reduced into fishmealand fish oil for use in animal feeding (livestock and aquaculture) orfor industrial purposes. Marine capture fisheries production, excludingaquaculture was located in the range of 80 to 85 million tons peryear in the 1990s. The long-term yearly sustainable yield of marinecapture fisheries is estimated at no more than around 100 milliontons per year; overfishing of some species in certain parts of theworlds threatens the resource base. Achieving and sustaining theselevels assume more efficient utilization of stocks, healthier ecosystemsand better conservation of critical habitats. Inland catches (excludingaquaculture) were recorded at about 7 to 8 million tons per year.However, a recent in-depth study of inland fisheries revealed thatactual catches may be double this amount. It is important to notethat fishery resources in many inland water bodies such as rivers andlakes are under increasing environmental threats resulting fromcontinued trends of growing aquatic pollution, habitat degradation,water abstraction and other human-made pressures.The bulk of the future increase of fish supply will have to comefrom aquaculture, which has been growing at a rate of 10 percent peryear during the 1990s and has increased its share in world fishsupplies to about 27 percent. Most aquaculture development tookplace in Asia (some 70 percent of world aquaculture production is inChina). At present, aquaculture production amounts to 35 million tons,of which 21 million is inland and 14 million marine. Over 90 percent oftotal aquaculture food fish production in 1995 came from developingcountries, compared with 51 percent of terrestrial animal meatproduction. Fish exports from developing countries have been growingrapidly and now far exceed earnings from commodities such as coffee,cocoa, bananas or rubber. Strong growth may continue for some time,but constraints such as lack of feedstuffs and suitable sites, diseasesand environmental constraints are becoming more binding. Majorfactors affecting both the sustainability of capture fisheries and theexpansion of aquaculture will include improved management in thesector and a better understanding of aquatic ecosystems, as well asprevention and better management of environmental impacts affectingfishery resources and aquatic biodiversity.Food tradeDeveloping countries increasing their importsAt the global level, food production equals consumption. For individualcountries and clusters of countries, however, production andconsumption differ depending on agricultural trade. In general, thegrowth rates of food production in the developing countries have beenbelow growth rates of demand, and food imports of these countrieshave been growing faster than their agricultural exports. For example,the net cereal imports of developing countries increased from 39million tons in the mid-1970s to 103 million tons in 1998.Notwithstanding lower growth in the demand for cereals in the future,the dependence of developing countries on cereal imports is expectedto continue to grow owing to limited potential in these countries toincrease production. One production constraint is scarcity of waterresources for irrigation, but inadequate access to credit and markets,and poor agricultural policy and management have also hamperedproduction increases. The course towards a widening net trade deficitof the developing countries is projected to continue: net food importsare expected to rise fairly rapidly to 198 million tons in 2015 and 265million tons in 2030. This compares to a projected cereal production indeveloping countries to the order of 1,650 million tons in 2030.Few countries pursue a policy of 100 percent food selfsufficiency,and likewise, few countries depend on imports for morethan 20 percent of their food demand. A number of countries witha chronic trade balance deficit and high population growth alreadyhave difficulty in raising the foreign exchange needed to satisfy thegrowing demand for food imports. While in the past such a foreignexchange situation would have called for an increase in import taxesand encouragement for local food production to supply the localmarket, the structural adjustment programmes and marketliberalization policies implemented in the 1980s and 1990s haveprecluded the adoption of national policies leading in the directionof food self-sufficiency (Stiglitz, 2002). Yet farmers in manydeveloping countries with weak infrastructure and no access tocapital and technology cannot face competition from theinternational market. This is particularly the case when theirproduction competes with that of the heavily subsidized agricultureof industrial countries where the productivity of labour can be1,000 times higher than theirs (Mazoyer and Roudart, 1997).The concept of virtual waterThe term ‘virtual water’ was coined in the 1990s in support of atrade and water policy point: for the food security of arid countries,where water is needed for domestic use and in support of theservices and industrial sector, it is not necessary to use water forlocal food production, because the easier and economically moreattractive alternative is to import food, in particular the inexpensive