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S I G N I N G P R O G R E S S : I N D I C A T O R S M A R K T H E W A Y / 5 5Geospatial presentation of indicatorsA related issue is the visual presentation of indicators to users. Witha wide spectrum of users foreseen, calculated indicators must bepresented as simply as possible while retaining their scientific rigour.In order to achieve this objective, offset the scale and aggregationproblems and respect spatial variability in socio-economic andhydrological situations, WWAP is working towards presentation ofindicators using geospatial tools. Although the difficulties treatedabove have a practical implication for water resource assessments atregional, continental, and global scales, existing monitoringmechanisms can be aligned to produce basic datasets to calculatevarious indicators.WWAP has noted these concerns and has already undertaken,on a pilot basis, spatial representation of a set of water resourcedata from Africa. The Data Synthesis System (DSS) for Africa is anoperational, digital information system for water resourceassessment cast within a geographic information system frameworkaccessible via the World Wide Web. The system includes a broadsuite of spatial and statistical data encompassing point scale andgridded socio-economic and biogeophysical products for dataexploration and download. This data is organized according to waterindicator themes and is presented in the spatial context of the riverbasin to analyse the changing nature of water in relation to humanneeds and activities at the global, regional and case study scales.Figures 3.9 and 3.10 provide examples of how indicators are beingsynthesized and presented for the Nile basin.Implications for tracking changes through timeIndicator time series show trends, which may provide information onthe system’s functioning or its response to management practices.The availability of extended time series can provide information onconditions throughout history, which could be used to derive ahistorically based reference condition. A comparison in time requiresconsistency in data collection and indicator construction. Changingindicators and data collection resulting from changing informationneeds means disruption of time series. While upgrading isnecessary, it is a balance between better information to be gainedat that moment or information gained on trends from extended timeseries of data (being less than perfect). For example, in figure 3.8the number of species and the distribution over the species groupsbetween 1900 and 1920 could be used as a historical reference,showing that the present number of species is approaching thehistorical reference.Misinformation and misinterpretationIndicators can voluntarily misinform or involuntarily be misinterpreteddue to subjective elements inside the indicator or index, inadequatedefinition of the indicator, mathematical problems in the process ofaggregation or the use of unreliable data.1. Aggregating a number of indicators to one index involves thevarious steps of selection, scaling (transforming indicators intodimensionless measures), weighting (valuation), aggregation andpresentation. These steps will require some combination of expertjudgement, multicriteria analysis, public opinion polls, value-baseddecisions and modelling experiments. As they are greatlydependent on subjective perceptions and subject to change,these steps must be taken with caution. To avoid the problem ofmisinformation and misinterpretation, a clear description of thesubjective elements in the indicators and indices should be given,such as the reference condition, the measuring rod, theweighting factors and the aggregation method.2. Indicators can also misinform due to imprecise description, and itis therefore necessary to have a mechanism for cross-referencingand validating them. It may be useful for a proposed indicator tobe broad enough to allow it to be deconstructed to its rootvariables so that distortions, if any, can be properly traced.3. In most cases, the mean or median of a dataset has to becalculated in some step of the aggregation process. Thedistribution of data underlying the indicator or index may be verycomplex, that is, may contain outlying observations, have aheavy tailing or otherwise be heavily skewed, or be multimodalin nature. The straightforward calculation of mean or medianmay be misleading in such cases – expert judgement and properdocumentation are required.4. A fourth possibility of misinformation by indicators is the use ofunreliable data. If the data collection or processing has beencarried out in an inadequate manner, the indicators based onthese data can provide wrong information. Measuring hydrologicaland environmental variables needs to be conducted applying theprinciples of quality assurance in the field (sampling, fieldmeasurements) and in laboratories. Methodology needs to bewell validated, taking into consideration aspects such as suitabilityof purpose (are the performance characteristics, e.g.measurement uncertainty, suitable for the objectives at hand),robustness and traceability. Also the collection of socio-economicstatistics needs to be quality assured (e.g. getting arepresentative random sample, asking the right questions in asurvey). Most indicator reports do not provide detailed
5 6 / S E T T I N G T H E S C E N ESigning Progress: Indicators Mark the WayFigure 3.9: Nile basin map showing climatic moisture indexThe method of Willmott and Feddema (1992) was applied relating potentialevaporation (PET) to precipitation (PPT) to generate a mapping of relativewater scarcity from a climatic perspective. Climatic Moisture Index iscalculated as follows:If PPT < PET then CMI = PPT/PET - 1If PPT > PET then CMI = 1 - PET/PPTIf PPT = PET then CMI = 0Figure 3.10: Nile basin map showing indicator on people with droughtstress thresholdThousands of people above (red) and below (blue) the 0.4 Demand perDischarge Stress Threshold for 30-year recurrence drought.These two figures provide examples of how indicators are beingsynthesized and presented.Negative values (shown in red on map) depict areas where the ecologicaldemand for water (PET) exceeds the amount of available water in the formof precipitation (PPT). Positive values (shown in blue on map) depict areaswhere the amount of available water in the form of precipitation (PPT) issufficient to meet the ecological demand for water (PET).Source: Data Synthesis System for World Water Resources, UNESCO/IHP Contribution to the WorldWater Assessment Programme (WWAP), University of New Hampshire/UNESCO, 2002.
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A joint report by thetwenty three U
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Lists of Figures, Maps, Boxes & Tab
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F I G U R E S / V9.1: Competing wat
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B O X E S / VII19.1: Seine-Normandy
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T A B L E S / XIII5.3: Africa, Asia
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X X/ P R E L I M I N A R YPrologueP
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iWater is an essential element of d
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6Table of contentsSignificance of F
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8 BoxTable of contents8.1: The righ
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2 7 0 / M A N A G E M E N T C H A L
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14 HolisticTable of contentsThinkin
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E N S U R I N G T H E K N O W L E D
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16Table of contentsGeneral Context
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C H A O P H R A Y A R I V E R B A S
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L A K E P E I P S I / C H U D S K O
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18 GeneralRuhuna Basins,Sri LankaTa
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S E I N E - N O R M A N D Y B A S I
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21Lake Titicaca Basin,Bolivia and P
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viNo intro text supplied for part V
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5 0 2 / F I T T I N G T H E P I E C
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The World’s Water Crisis: Fitting
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5 3 6 / A N N E X E SAnnexesAcronym
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538 / A N N E X E SAcronymsSAGEs:Lo
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5 4 0 / A N N E X E SSome Other Glo
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5 4 2 / A N N E X E SSome Other Glo
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544 / A N N E X E SIndexwater avail
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546 / A N N E X E SIndexagriculture
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548 / A N N E X E SIndexCongo, Repu
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550 / A N N E X E SIndexnational re
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552 / A N N E X E SIndexFisheries G
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554 / A N N E X E SIndexsustainabil
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556 / A N N E X E SIndexwater quali
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558 / A N N E X E SIndexJohannesbur
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560 / A N N E X E SIndexMMacao, eff
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562 / A N N E X E SIndexland area 7
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564 / A N N E X E SIndexwater avail
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566 / A N N E X E SIndexin rivers 8
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568 / A N N E X E SIndexsolid waste
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570 / A N N E X E SIndexconflicts a
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574 / A N N E X E SIndexwetlandsCon
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5 7 6 / A N N E X E SCreditsPhotogr
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