Water for people.pdf - WHO Thailand Digital Repository

2 7 8 / M A N A G E M E N T C H A L L E N G E S : S T E W A R D S H I P A N D G O V E R N A N C EMitigating Risk and Coping with Uncertaintyattempting to achieve sustainable development. With rapidurbanization and changed land use and settlement patterns thenegative impacts continue to rise and the gap in matching measuresfor the management of water-related risks is widening.The costs of risks to society are aggregated over the full range ofevents and different sectors (natural and man-made, flow-system andproduction, social, industrial and international risk). It is thereforeimportant to develop tools for integrated management of natural andhuman-induced risk and uncertainty. The impacts of joint risk representthe total stress on the society, which is the result of the compoundedrisk of interlinked risk in the different systems and sectors and wherewater-related risk is just one of many. Table 11.3 presents examples ofthe principal interlinkages between risks or uncertainty in differentsectors. The matrix demonstrates the importance of a joint assessmentof risks that impact on society, based on an appreciation of the relativeimportance of both natural and human-induced risks in terms of theoverall society and particular subsystems. The matrix proposes a modelfor risk-based integrated allocation for minimized social risk.Responding to DisastersThe growing frequency of natural disasters led to the adoption bygovernments of the International Strategy for Disaster Reduction(ISDR) to succeed and promote implementation of therecommendations deriving from the International Decade forNatural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR, 1990–1999). The aim of theISDR is to mobilize governments, UN agencies, regional bodies,civil society and the private sector to unite efforts in buildingresilient societies by developing a culture of prevention andpreparedness. Different definitions and standard terminology areprovided by the United Nations Department of HumanitarianAffairs (UNDHA, 1992) and have been adopted by the ISDRSecretariat after consultations with relevant agencies and sectors(see box 11.2).Recognition of effective management and mitigation of waterrelatedrisk is growing, as reflected in the priorities and theprogrammes of UN agencies, national governments, international waterlobbies, emergency groups and private enterprises (see box 11.3).Management toolsRisk management traditionally possesses three major components asfollows (Dilley, 2001).■ The second is defining and implementing the measures to reducethese risks. Such approaches can include ‘structural’ and ‘nonstructural’measures such as early warning systems andpreparedness. However, for uncertainties and unidentifiable risks,the only option is for society to share the risks.■ The third is in transference of risk, what is termed risk-sharing. Itimplies imposing risk on a wider group of people or inbroadening the economic basis for support. In wealthyeconomies, this can be accomplished through insuranceprogrammes 1 and other similar risk transfer mechanisms.These instruments need to be used in combination with riskreduction, and are not themselves a solution to the cause of the risk.Structural and non-structural measuresIn attempts to mitigate the negative impacts of flooding, two generalcategories of measures or options exist: structural and non-structural.Structural measures include the building of physical works such asdams and dikes, but can also include channelization and dredging,creating additional artificial floodways, diversions and ponds, andarmouring of channel walls to prevent erosion. Flood-proofing ofexisting structures has also witnessed rising popularity. Nonstructuralmeasures would include land use planning that promotesappropriate use of land within the floodplain and floodway andprohibits certain development and uses from occurring.Acknowledging uncertaintiesRisk identification and other risk management steps could provideinvaluable indications and alert vulnerable groups, but could alsoestablish perceptions of false security. As shown by the increasingnumber of unexpected large accidents, risk is often characterized bythe uncertainty and incapacity of society to respond to earlywarnings. In this situation, there is an emergence of alternativeapproaches: the policy of fail-safe systems is now giving place tosafe-fail ones. As stated during the International Conference onWater in Bonn: ‘It is impossible to design a system that never fails(fail-safe). What is needed is to design a system that fails in a safeway (safe-fail)’ (Kundzewicz, 2001). This acknowledgesuncertainties and handles them through direct involvement ofstakeholders as responsible managers and potential victims of theaccidents, rather than through a technically refined analysis.■ The first is knowing the risks. This means knowing the probabilityof the hazard to occur and establishing the vulnerability indexand expected loss of life and possessions, injury and damage tothe environment.1. Insurance of water risk is marginal and not attractive to the private insuranceindustry and the coverage has come from governments that possess neither theauthority nor the resources, especially in developing countries.