Número 8 - Janeiro 2006 - Faap

And that, to me, is the critical question, because we cannot afford to wait
when it comes to energy-for all of the reasons I outlined earlier. We must
recognize that economic growth depends on reliable supplies of energy, and
that social development, technological and scientific progress, and the welfare
of nations in turn depend on economic growth. We must not jeopardize the
future of our societies by moving too rapidly or too rashly to energy sources
that are unproven, are not economically viable, and lack extensive and reliable
production and distribution systems.
At the same time, I am not arguing in favor of maintaining the status quo,
because the future doesn’t have to be a choice between the uncertainty of revolutionary
upheaval and the rigidity of outdated mental models. Instead, as the Mexican poet
Octavio Paz said, “Wisdom lies neither in fixity nor in change, but in the dialectic
between the two.” Arriving at that middle ground, balancing the need for change
with the need for stability, is our challenge-a challenge that we must face together.
In my view, and that of many of my petroleum industry colleagues, the
responsible course in the decades to come is to phase in realistic alternatives
while developing and deploying cleaner, more efficient uses of hydrocarbons
and associated technologies. As I noted before, the world will continue to rely
on fossil fuels to meet most of its energy needs, but we must accelerate our
efforts to improve their environmental, operational and economic performance.
Given the continued dominance of hydrocarbons, even marginally improving
their environmental performance will significantly benefit the health of the planet
– and I am certain we can go well beyond marginal improvements.
There is another, equally pressing obligation for our industry, however. At
the moment, hundreds of millions of people around the world lack access to
sufficient supplies of energy, compromising their health, safety and economic and
social welfare. Around the globe, standards of living have risen substantially over
the last generation, but not all segments of the population have benefited equally.
Eliminating energy deficits is essential to narrowing the gap between rich and
poor, and reducing distinctions between economic “haves” and “have-nots”. This
objective is every bit as important as protecting the environment, and in fact, the
two are interrelated. Just as we must balance change and stability, we must also
strike a balance between promoting economic prosperity and environmental
protection. Only then will our patterns of development be truly sustainable.
Oil as the fuel of choice
Looking at the foreseeable future in the context of both energy and
development, we see that oil will continue to be the world’s fuel of choice,
especially in the transportation sector, just as it has been for the last century.
Over the next twenty-five years, global demand for oil is set to grow from 83 to
120 million barrels per day. As a result, the global economy’s reliance on stable,
plentiful supplies of oil will only increase, and that fact has led to a good deal of
speculation about the adequacy of future oil supplies. However, the numbers
would suggest that such alarmist forecasts are misplaced.
36 Revista de Economia & Relações Internacionais, vol.5(8), jan.2006