Número 8 - Janeiro 2006 - Faap

The US Geological Survey, for example, places the mean value of ultimate
recoverable resources of conventional oil, including natural gas liquids, at more than
3.3 trillion barrels. Of these, less than a third have been consumed to date, with
almost 2.4 trillion barrels yet to be produced. In addition, there are also sizable resources
of “non-conventional” oil-some 7 trillion barrels initially in place, according to IEA
estimates. Although it is uncertain what proportion of those reserves will be ultimately
recovered, even a ten-percent recovery rate would yield an additional 700 billion
barrels of oil.
Although 80 percent of these unconventional resources are found in Canada,
the United States and Venezuela, at the moment two-thirds of the world’s proven
crude oil reserves are located in the Middle East, as is a significant share of the
conventional oil resources yet to be discovered. This worries some outside observers,
who fret over import vulnerability and supply insecurity. Certainly, the cause of supply
stability will be helped by creating regional stability in the Middle East, and by seeking
a fair and just solution to the Palestinian issue. By addressing the root causes of
suffering and injustice in the Middle East, the global community can make a real
contribution toward ensuring the long-term wellbeing of all of the region’s peoples.
But these outside analysts have gone beyond political questions into the realm of
technical affairs, and have also questioned the ability of the region’s producers to keep
pace with mushrooming demand.
The Saudi Aramco story
From first-hand knowledge, I can tell you that such speculation is baseless. At
Saudi Aramco, we recognize the vital part we play in supplying energy to the world,
and we understand the critical importance of that energy to countless men, women
and children around the world. We stand ready to provide energy reliably and
responsibly, just as we have delivered petroleum to global markets for nearly seventy
years. There are three factors that have enabled us to play that leading role, and which
will enable us to maintain that leadership position. First is our responsible, long-term
approach to managing our extensive reserve base; second is the unmatched reliability
of our petroleum production, processing and distribution infrastructure; and finally,
there is our commitment to cooperating with others in our industry, and beyond.
The reserve base
Reserves are the basic building blocks of the petroleum industry, and we stand
upon a firm foundation of 260 billion barrels of crude. Those reserves account for
roughly a quarter of the world’s proven oil reserves, and we continue to identify new
resources. For many years we have been able to replace our production, meaning that
despite our prolific output, we have not had to draw down our total reserves. In fact,
conservative estimates place our probable and possible reserves, beyond the proven
category, at about 100 billion barrels.
But that’s not all. We are confident that we can extend our success well
into the future given continued advances in exploration and production
technologies and the fact that more than half of the Kingdom’s potential
Transition into the future, Abdallah S. Jum´ah, p. 33-40.
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