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gambling in alberta - Research Services - University of Lethbridge

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Williams & Volberg (2010) also calculated conversion factors that can be used to estimate what<br />

rates us<strong>in</strong>g one <strong>in</strong>strument are likely to be if another <strong>in</strong>strument had been used. Although<br />

these projected estimates are affected to some extent by response rates and weight<strong>in</strong>g, they<br />

nonetheless provide a rough estimate that is useful for comparison purposes. This is the<br />

procedure that has been used <strong>in</strong> the present study to convert SOGS and CPGI rates to PPGM<br />

rates for all assessment years. In addition, a CPGI 5+ rate has also been calculated, as this<br />

research has determ<strong>in</strong>ed that a score <strong>of</strong> 5 or higher is the optimal cut-<strong>of</strong>f po<strong>in</strong>t for the<br />

designation <strong>of</strong> problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> so as to maximize classification accuracy (Williams & Volberg,<br />

2010). 74 Results are conta<strong>in</strong>ed <strong>in</strong> Table 39. Bracketed numbers represent figures that have<br />

been estimated based on this conversion procedure.<br />

There are several important observations that can be derived from this table. First, regardless<br />

<strong>of</strong> which year is exam<strong>in</strong>ed, the overall prevalence <strong>of</strong> problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> is low (less than 4%). To<br />

put this <strong>in</strong> context, <strong>in</strong> 2004 approximately 7.6% <strong>of</strong> Albertans aged 15+ reported that alcohol had<br />

caused some harm for them <strong>in</strong> the past year and 2.8% reported that illicit drug use had caused<br />

some harm <strong>in</strong> the past year (AADAC, 2006). Second, despite quite dramatic <strong>in</strong>creases <strong>in</strong> per<br />

adult <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> expenditures from 1993 to 2009 (see earlier Figure 17, p. 95) as well as<br />

significant <strong>in</strong>creased availability <strong>of</strong> EGM and cas<strong>in</strong>o <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> (see earlier Figures 7 to 13, p. 62 -<br />

70), there is no evidence that problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> rates have <strong>in</strong>creased <strong>in</strong> this same time period.<br />

If anyth<strong>in</strong>g, problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> prevalence was higher <strong>in</strong> 1993 compared to the present time.<br />

(Note: although there were no problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> prevalence surveys prior to 1993, it is<br />

reasonable to speculate that the ‘peak’ rate might have been sometime between 1993 to 1996,<br />

as this was co<strong>in</strong>cident with the rapid <strong>in</strong>troduction <strong>of</strong> VLTs from 1992 to 1996, a doubl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>of</strong> the<br />

number <strong>of</strong> cas<strong>in</strong>os/RECs from 7 to 14, and the period with the most dramatic rise <strong>in</strong> per capita<br />

<strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> expenditure).<br />

Table 39: Prevalence <strong>of</strong> Problem Gambl<strong>in</strong>g <strong>in</strong> Alberta among Adults (18+) as a Function <strong>of</strong><br />

Year and Assessment Instrument.<br />

SURVEY YEAR 1993 1998 2001 2002 2007 2008 2009<br />

SAMPLE SIZE 1804 1821 1804 3394 680 3001 1054<br />

SOGS 3+ 5.4% 4.8% -- -- -- -- --<br />

CPGI 5+ (3.7%) (3.3%) 2.7% 1.7% 1.4% 1.8% 2.5%<br />

PPGM (3.9%) (3.4%) (2.8%) (1.8%) 1.3% 2.1% 3.1%<br />

No data weight<strong>in</strong>g occurred <strong>in</strong> the 1993 and 1998 surveys. However, there was less need for weight<strong>in</strong>g<br />

because <strong>of</strong> good response rates (50% <strong>in</strong> 1993 and 67% <strong>in</strong> 1998) as well as a good match between the<br />

obta<strong>in</strong>ed sample and demographic characteristics <strong>of</strong> Albertans. Data <strong>in</strong> 2001 was weighted by age x<br />

gender (not done <strong>in</strong> the orig<strong>in</strong>al 2001 report). Data <strong>in</strong> 2002, 2007, 2008, 2009 were weighted by<br />

household size and age x gender. Note: the 2008 PPGM rate <strong>of</strong> problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> represents ~58,000<br />

problem gamblers <strong>in</strong> Alberta and the 2009 rate represents ~ 87,000 problem gamblers.<br />

74 Use <strong>of</strong> a CPGI 5+ threshold for problem <strong>gambl<strong>in</strong>g</strong> results <strong>in</strong> a 74.2% sensitivity, 95.6% specificity, 72.5% positive<br />

predictive power, 96.0% negative predictive power, 92.8% diagnostic efficiency, and a ratio <strong>of</strong> <strong>in</strong>strument assessed<br />

PG prevalence over cl<strong>in</strong>ically assessed PG prevalence <strong>of</strong> 1.02.<br />

165

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