North Korean House of Cards

While there is debate within the community of North Korea watchers
regarding current and near term leadership dynamics, they largely agree on the
fundamentals of the more distant future. The longer-term prognosis is dependent
on Kim Jong-un’s intrinsic leadership traits, as well as the system’s ability to move
forward with new faces moving to the fore. 247 Provided there has not been a coup
in place, as some suggest, the concept of monolithic leadership rule should enforce
stability at the center. However, if policy failures begin to mount, Kim has left
himself with little room for maneuver. 248 He lacks the legitimacy his father possessed,
to say nothing of his grandfather. 249 The Kim family itself has been wounded
and if Kim Kyong-hui is out of the picture, 250 the connectivity to the Mt. Paektu
bloodline, which has created the foundation for legitimacy in the regime since its
beginning, will begin to fade. 251 In time, instability could creep in, and if allowed to
fester, could lead to growing public agitation that the regime cannot control. This
would allow the leadership more latitude to begin to go its own way, ignoring the
demands from the center.
247 Under Kim Jong-il, the Military First Policy was the ideological principle that dictated which
segment of the leadership predominated. Some Pyongyang-watchers have asked whether Kim Jong-un
has given clues to which part(s) of the leadership now govern leadership politics. The above description
of the leadership suggests that the answer to that question remains elusive and will likely not come into
focus until Kim Jong-un has completely consolidated his power.
248 The biggest weakness for Kim as he marks his fourth year as leader of the reclusive state is that
he has been unable to rack up any startling achievements that would have justified his position. “Quick
wins” on the policy front are critical to his legitimacy building campaign.
249 “Does Aunt’s Absence Weaken Kim Jong-un?” op. cit. Kim Jong-un is not protected by former
partisan soldiers like his grandfather, nation-founder Kim Il-sung, and has been unable to build up a strong
base of supporters like his father, Kim Jong-il, who was groomed for twenty years to assume the throne.
250 In addition to Kim Kyong-hui’s health, there are reports, primarily from the Japanese and
South Korean media, that she may be out of the country—in Switzerland or Poland—either for medical
treatment or because of a falling out with Kim Jong-un over her husband’s execution. If the latter, which
is still highly speculative at this point, the potential for instability is real as news that a breach within the
Kim family has occurred leaks out to the wider leadership.
251 Song Sang-Ho, “Absence of Aunt May Not Impact North Korean Leadership,” op. cit.
Some Pyongyang-watchers doubt that Kim Kyong-hui’s illness will have much impact on her nephew’s
power consolidation process, which is coming to a close. If she is unable to perform her Party and other
official duties, these may fall to Kim Yo-jong, who may follow in her aunt’s footsteps as a key advisor
to her older brother.
Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
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