North Korean House of Cards

Fully assuming the role of Supreme Leader requires more than just acting
on one’s own initiative and making decisions. It also requires the leader to interact
with the wider leadership. Recent defector reports suggest that Kim Jong-un is
becoming increasingly comfortable in his role as Supreme Leader. He is dealing
not only with his closest advisors but also with powerful institutions such as the
high command. 323 Furthermore, he appears to be keenly aware of the protocols that
need to be observed and seems to understand the boundaries within which he must
operate to safeguard his position and maintain regime stability. However, his policies
indicate a bolder approach to dealing with the issues facing the regime, both internal
and external. 324 Some have suggested that his April 15, 2012 speech, in which he
promised the North Korean people that they would “no longer have to tighten their
belts,” reflected his willingness to move away from the Songun politics that characterized
the regime under Kim Jong-il. Others point to the March/April crisis on the
Korean peninsula as evidence of a desire by Kim Jong-un and North Korea to push
the limits on the international front. Additionally, the unconditional abrogation of
the armistice went much further than any similar moves his father made.
As Kim Jong-un grows into his leadership role, it will likely become harder
for his advisors to control him from behind the scenes. This could result in a very
different leadership style than is evident today, which is firmly tied to Kim’s legitimacybuilding
campaign. Once he is able to fully step into the shoes of the Supreme
Leader, his decision-making process may change and the character and direction of
his policies may become less opaque. Whether and how far he will depart from his
father’s legacy remains to be seen.
323 Author’s interviews in Seoul, April 2013.
324 See “The Rise of Moderate and Hardline Factions in North Korea,” Sankei Shimbun, op. cit.
According to one theory reportedly emerging from sources inside North Korea, Kim Jong-un is at the
mercy of surrounding factions. He “is merely an avatar of his grandfather, Kim Il-sung, with no close
associates of his own or real authority.” Policymaking depends on which faction comes out on top in the
struggle to interpret Kim Jong-il’s legacy.
Committee for Human Rights in North Korea
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