HRM textbook

142 PART 2 RECRUITMENT, PLACEMENT, AND TALENT MANAGEMENT
of engineering) will move from position to position and therefore be available to fill
the key position.
Whichever forecasting tool you use, managerial judgment should play a big role.
It s rare that any historical trend, ratio, or relationship will simply continue. You will
therefore have to modify any forecast based on subjective factors such as the feeling
that more employees will be quitting you believe will be important.
Improving Productivity Through HRIS
Computerized Personnel Forecasting
Computerized forecasts enable managers to build more variables into their personnel
projections. 8 These systems rely on setting clear goals, such as reducing inventory on
hand. 9 Other variables might include direct labor hours required to produce one unit
of product (a measure of productivity), and minimum, maximum, and probable sales
projections. Based on such input, a typical program generates average staff levels
required to meet product demands, as well as separate forecasts for direct labor (such
as assembly workers), indirect staff (such as secretaries), and exempt staff (such as
executives).
With programs like these, employers can more accurately translate projected
productivity and sales levels into personnel needs. Many firms particularly use computerized
employee forecasting systems for estimating short-term needs. In retailing, for
instance, labor scheduling systems help retailers estimate required staffing needs based
on sales forecasts and estimated store traffic. As one vendor says, [Our] Workforce
Forecast Manager analyzes your business drivers to produce an accurate forecast down
to 15 minute intervals. Seasonal variations, events, and current trends are consistently
accounted for . . . 10
Perhaps because the demand for electric power is relatively predictable, utilities tend
to do exemplary workforce planning. For example, at Chelan County Public Utility
District, the development manager used spreadsheets to build a statistical model encompassing
such things as age, tenure, turnover rate, and time to train new employees. This
model helped them quickly identify five employment hotspots among 33 occupational
groups at their company. This in turn prompted them to focus more closely on creating
plans to retain and hire, for instance, more systems operators. 11
Forecasting the Supply of Inside Candidates
Knowing your staffing needs satisfies only half the staffing equation. Next, you have to
estimate the likely supply of both inside and outside candidates. Most firms start with
the inside candidates.
The main task here is determining which current employees might be qualified for
the projected openings. For this you need to know current employees skills sets their
current qualifications. Sometimes it s obvious how you have to proceed. When Google s
founders wanted a replacement for CEO Eric Schmidt, they chose one of their own.
Sometimes who to choose is not so obvious. Here, managers turn to qualifications
(or skills) inventories. These contain data on employees performance records, educational
background, and promotability. Whether manual or computerized, these help
managers determine which employees are available for promotion or transfer.
MANUAL SYSTEMS AND REPLACEMENT CHARTS Department managers
or owners of smaller firms often use manual devices to track employee
qualifications. Thus a personnel inventory and development record form compiles
qualifications information on each employee. The information includes education,
company-sponsored courses taken, career and development interests, languages,
desired assignments, and skills. Personnel replacement charts (Figure 5-4)
are another option, particularly for the firm s top positions. They show the present
performance and promotability for each position s potential replacement. As an
alternative, you can develop a position replacement card. For this you create a
card for each position, showing possible replacements as well as their present
performance, promotion potential, and training.