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Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Chapter IV.D. Future of Mediterranean<br />

Coastal Lagoons<br />

Key Points<br />

• Lagoon ecosystems are fragile due to water from from<br />

developed areas, <strong>the</strong>ir shallowness <strong>and</strong> low water volume<br />

to surface area ratio. As a consequence <strong>the</strong>re is a high<br />

probability that coastal lagoons will be <strong>the</strong> first to react to<br />

consequences of changes in climatic trends, especially in<br />

rainfall.<br />

• Temperature increases in coastal lagoons will influence<br />

organism metabolism <strong>and</strong> niche distribution, affect species<br />

interactions <strong>and</strong> distribution, modify structure of <strong>the</strong> food<br />

web <strong>and</strong> biogeochemical cycles (e.g. N, C), <strong>and</strong> change<br />

ecological processes, especially primary production <strong>and</strong><br />

decomposition.<br />

• <strong>Change</strong>s in precipitation patterns will have important<br />

consequences for <strong>the</strong> water balance of coastal ecosystems,<br />

increased nutrient transport from <strong>the</strong> watershed to <strong>the</strong><br />

coastal lagoon <strong>and</strong> sediment transport both from l<strong>and</strong>-side<br />

<strong>and</strong> sea-side.<br />

• Sea level rise (SLR) will increase water depth in <strong>the</strong> lagoon,<br />

alter water circulation <strong>and</strong> salinity, affect solid transport<br />

<strong>and</strong> erosion-sedimentation equilibrium, erode <strong>the</strong> lagoon<br />

barriers, <strong>and</strong> increase ingression of salt water into inl<strong>and</strong><br />

coastal areas.<br />

• Quantification of impacts of climate change on coastal<br />

lagoons will require <strong>the</strong> identification of a suitable set of<br />

indicators <strong>and</strong> an integrated modelling approach<br />

(watershed-lagoon) with scenario <strong>and</strong> socio-economic<br />

analysis.<br />

Chapter IV.D. Future of Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons<br />

106

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