Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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extreme flood modeling. Downscaling methods available are Regional Climate Models (using the GCM’s as boundary conditions), statistical downscaling and stochastic downscaling. No clear consensus exists on which methodology to apply, although stochastic downscaling (Burlando et al. 1999) might be the least problematic. Arnell (1999) on the contrary, advises to not use downscaling at all. Menzell and Schwandt (2004) also state the importance of further downscaling research, both to improve spatial as well as temporal resolution. They mention that it is not clear if the prediction of increased rainfall by global circulation models at large scales means increased extreme rainfall amounts at small scales leading to floods. Furthermore, computational resources in climate research need to be improved to allow the calculation of much larger ensembles that are needed for more reliable estimates of extreme events, particularly for very rare events. Multi-model ensembles of the size used by Palmer and Räisänen (2002) are available only for future changes in CO2 concentration. Similar model integrations will be needed for a more complete picture of the factors contributing to climate change, such as other greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols, including any uncertainties attached to these agents. A quantitative prediction of the frequency, location, extent, and intensity of highly intensive local rainfall has so far only been possible to a very limited degree, even in short-term weather forecasting (Bronstert, 2003). Methods of analyzing spatial and temporal precipitation frequency on small scale must be further developed. The significance of the observed changes in the frequency of western weather conditions in parts of Europe over long time periods is not yet known (Bronstert, 2003). There is a strong correlation between this circulation type and the occurrence probability of regional or local precipitation in Central Europe. It would be desirable to trace large-scale weather conditions well into the past and to correlate them with proxy sources, such as biological indicators. Hydrologists have not yet been able to distinguish the influence of climate change on flooding in relation to other anthropogenic interferences or in relation to the natural variability of the meteorological and area-specific meteorological conditions. For such analysis the further development of process-oriented hydrological models coupled with meteorological and hydraulic simulation tools is necessary (Bronstert, 2003). Climatic change influence on land cover may become a more important factor influencing the frequency and severity of floods in Europe should be taken into account (Bronstert, 2003). With a rising likelihood of extreme weather conditions and resulting floods and droughts it would be important to map the areas prone to these kind of risks (flooding, forest fire, water shortage, storm damage, etc. risks) and to assess the number of people (urban-rural population), building stock, industries etc. located in such areas at European level. This information is also needed for setting up regional prevention plans and would also need to be fed into the spatial planning processes in order to take these risks into account in the future land use planning. Further research is needed to build up scenarios for the prevention and reduction of natural hazards to prepare a better adaptation to climate change effects. Spatial planning methods have to be investigated to understand the relations between the spatial influences and the environmental disasters. New models of spatial development have to be established. 120
Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter V.B. Climate Change and European Droughts Key Points • Droughts are a natural and recurrent feature of the European climate occurring in both high and low rainfall areas, and in any season. • The impacts depend on the severity, duration and spatial extent of the rainfall deficit, but also on the environmental and socio-economic vulnerability of the affected region. • Europe’s vulnerability to drought is increasing due to increased demand for water in some sectors and regions, and the impact of climate change. • Total economic cost (primarily from agriculture) of the 2003 drought was approximately US$13 billion, and in general higher than for floods. • The increased integration of water resource systems at the regional level, with the optimal exploitation of both surface and groundwater sources, has significantly increased capabilities to withstand the impact of within-year drought episodes. • A Pan-European Drought Forecasting and Monitoring System: Reducing the economic, social and environmental impact of future droughts will require reliable and useable information (through forecasting and monitoring) to be provided to policy makers, water managers and citizens. 121
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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