Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Figure IV.D.5: The Sacca di Goro lagoon during a bloom of Cladophora (upper panel) and during a dystrophic crises (lower panel) in which water takes on the typical white colour (in the background the water has a typical blue colour. On the left a mussel farm is affected by the white tide) The recent evolution of Mediterranean coastal lagoons has been sudden and drastic. The non-linear response of the natural ecosystems to stress is a known concept in ecology and the coastal ecosystems including lagoons are not exceptions. For example, at low perturbation levels, seagrass communities are resistant, but when a certain threshold is exceeded, dramatic non-linear changes occur. Non-linear behaviour and unpredictability of coastal ecosystems is one of the major research 110
topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit et al., 2001, Cadée et al., 2001, Herman et al., 2001). Due to these characteristics, and specially due to the fact that lagoon ecosystems are fragile because they receive water draining directly from highly inhabited areas, and because of their shallow water and low water volume compared to the adjacent sea, there is a high probability that, among Mediterranean marine ecosystem, Mediterranean coastal lagoons will be the first to react to consequences of changes in climatic trends. Trends may include temperature elevation, precipitation distribution patterns, weather extremes, sea level raise (SLR) and UVB radiation (UVBR: 280-320 nm,) increase. However, it may be difficult to distinguish between these and already existing anthropogenic and climate change effects. Assessments are further hampered by lack of historical time series, the Venice lagoon being probably the only Mediterranean lagoon where this analysis has been attempted (Camuffo and Sturaro, 2004, Day et al., 1999). IV.D.2 Major Drivers of Change in Mediterranean Coastal Lagoons The main changes of climatic conditions in Europe and in the Mediterranean area specifically have been summarised in the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) reports (IPCC, 2001). Temperature The report foresees an annual temperature increase at a rate of between 0.2 and 0.6°C per decade over the Mediterranean arc with an increase in the frequency of hot summers and a decrease in the cold winters (1/10 in 1961-1990). Precipitation The general pattern for southern Europe in annual precipitation is a small decrease (maximum –1% per decade) with a marked contrast between winter and summer patterns of precipitation change. The Mediterranean area will become wetter in the winter season (between +1 and +4% per decade) and drier in summer (drying of as much as –5% per decade). Weather extremes Climate change scenarios do not explicitly quantify changes in daily weather extremes. However, it is very likely that frequencies and intensities of summer heat waves will increase throughout Southern Europe; and that intense precipitation events will increase in frequency, especially in winter, and that summer drought risk will increase in southern Europe; it is also possible that gale frequencies will increase. UVB radiation The accumulation of CFCs and other chlorinated and brominated compounds has depleted the stratospheric ozone layer with consequent increases in ultraviolet-B radiation (UVBR: 280-320 nm) at the Earth’s surface. Sea level Estimates of Global-mean sea level rises by the 2050s are around 13–68 cm. These estimates make no allowance for natural vertical land movements. Owing to tectonic adjustments following the last glaciation, and the different pattern of average atmospheric pressure change, there are likely to be regional differences across Europe in the natural rates of relative sea-level change. 111
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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