Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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climate the thermocline will develop earlier in spring and disappear later in autumn. Higher lake temperatures may greatly affect drinking water quality in terms of taste, odour and colour (Sweden’s, 2001). Model simulations reveal a general increase in the precipitation in Northern Europe with a large increase in winter precipitation. The greatest increases in both precipitation and net precipitation-evaporation difference (approximate measure of water availability) are foreseen along the Atlantic coast and in Northern Scandinavia. A slight decline is predicted in southeastern Sweden, however. The predicted changes in precipitation vary in a larger range, which illustrates the uncertainties involved in impact studies. The estimated changes in water supply largely conform to the changes in precipitation-evaporation: increased water supply in the north, but no clear change or decrease in the south. One important conclusion to date is that the characteristic spring flood of today will be more irregular and less intense, on average. This is because the snow period will be shorter and the snow depth less due to the warming effect. However, the water supply is expected to increase in winter and also in autumn as a result of heavier precipitation. Accordingly, the risk of flooding will diminish in spring but increase in late summer and autumn, particularly in the north (Sweden’s, 2001). A preliminary simulation of the regional climate scenarios indicates a clear increase in surface water temperature in the North in spring and late summer and one month shorter ice cover period compared to today’s climate. This will have implications for the mixing regime, as dimictic lakes become monomictic with wide consequences for nutrient and phytoplankton dynamics. The increase in surface water temperature in summer implies an increase in summer stratification length with alterations in the composition of summer phytoplankton blooms (unpublished results). The scenarios (Räisänen et al., 2004) indicate that climate change may have a dramatic impact on the Swedish environment. The rapid changes predicted in these scenarios include a rise in mean temperature of about 0.4°C per 10-year period. Precipitation is also forecast to rise by up to 2 per cent per decade. The climate zones determining the range of the various biomes may move north by 50 to 80 kilometres a decade (Sweden’s, 2001). In the Alpine region, future temperature change will exert a significant influence on the hydrological cycle because temperature regulates how much of the precipitation falls as rain or snow. Higher temperatures in winter reduce the amount of spring snowmelt, raise the evaporation, and hence reduce run-off in spring. Temperature increase leads to an expansion of the vegetation period and increases transpiration reducing discharge. On the other hand, glacial melting is enhanced leading to greater discharge during summer. In general temperatures will increase in most areas of Austria while precipitation will decrease. Similar to northern Europe, the Mediterranean region will warm at a rate of between 0.1 and 0.4ºC/decade (Haas, 2002). Projections point to more precipitation in the winter and less in summer over the region as a whole, while mean annual precipitation is expected to decline south of 45°N. The general tendency would be that northern parts of the Mediterranean would become wetter, and the southern parts drier, thus amplifying current rainfall differences and water scarcity. The IPCC (2001) nonetheless acknowledges that the regional averages also mask important basin-specific and temporal problems with distribution. Because the general circulation models used to assess global and regional variations do not have 60
sufficient resolution and accuracy as yet to assess local effects, or changes in a particular basin, (the interactive influences of the Sahara, Atlantic and Mediterranean are also particularly difficult to model), the analysis can be only directional and indicative of the trends. Table IV.B.3. Projected first order impacts of climate change on Mediterranean hydrological systems (Haas, 2002) Aspect Representative Impacts More variability and extreme weather events: o More frequent and intense storms o Increased number of days of heavy rainfall events and torrential downpours o More frequent and longer lasting droughts spells o Greater seasonal and year-toyear variation in precipitation, especially in semi-arid areas in the southern and eastern portions of the region Wetter winters and dryer summers o More precipitation in winter, less in summer over the Mediterranean region as a whole, with variability in basins o Earlier snowmelt (e.g. shifting to Jan, Feb, Mar) o More winter precipitation falling as rain (in mountainous and colder climate regions) Hotter summers and heat waves o Warming trend greater in summer than in winter o Hotter and longer summers, o Heat waves becoming the norm. 61 • Higher surface runoff with less chance for infiltration • Increased variability in river flows through the year • More frequent and higher floods, especially over northern parts of the Mediterranean basin • Increased erosion from intense storms and sediment in runoff (in conjunction with effects of drought making soils erosionprone) • Lower groundwater recharge rates associated with drought o Shift in normal season of peak flows in rivers from spring to winter, especially in basins with mountains in the upper catchments o Runoff in a particular basin may increase or decrease on average, but the seasonal distribution will change o Lower groundwater recharge rates where infiltration is less, and in dry summers o Less efficient rainwater infiltration feeding inland and coastal water tables and fragmentation of fresh water aquifers o Increased soil evaporation, plant evapo-transpiration o Dryer and more erosion-prone soils o Acceleration of desertification effects o Multiple impacts such as increasing water needs in human, agriculture and natural systems
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 9 and 10: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19 and 20: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 21 and 22: Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25 and 26: The projected warming is not unifor
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Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
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Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Page 39 and 40: Figure III.4. Projected change in s
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
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Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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