Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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negatively related to the Nino3.4 index in autumn (Mariotti et al. 2002). That is in this region the sign of the relationship between ENSO and precipitation changes from autumns towards spring. Studies regarding the influence of ENSO on lakes and rivers in Europe are scarce. For example, Rodó et al ( 1997) have showed the ENSO influence on the water level dynamics of Lake Gallocanta, Spain. Price et al. (1998) found evidence for an influence of ENSO on precipitation in Israel and water level variability of Lake Kinneret during the last quarter of the 20 th century. The position of the Gulf stream is related both to the NAO (Taylor and Stephens 1998) and – with a lag of approximately two years - to ENSO (Taylor et al. 1998). Annual variability in the latitude of the Gulf Stream is associated with variability in wind speed around Britain. Due to this relationship an influence of the Gulf Stream position on lakes in the British lakes District and throughout northern Europe has been suggested. For example, reduced wind speed during years with a more northerly position of the Gulf stream is associated with less mixing and lower chlorophyll a concentration in Esthwaite Water (George 2002). Likewise, in Lake Windermere the thermocline depth is higher when the Gulf Stream is in a more northerly position (George and Taylor 1995). However, observations relating impacts of the Gulf Stream variations to lakes’ physics and biology are restricted up to now to Great Britain. The use of regional climate indices for a better understanding and prediction of climate effects on lakes is under-explored at present. Circulation patterns such as the Scandinavian (Eurasia-1) and the East Atlantic/West Russia (Eurasia-2) pattern were proposed by Barnston and Livezey (1987). However they are seldom used as a tool to link changing lake and river variables to climate variability. Nevertheless, there seems to be a large potential in using regional indices and/or frequencies of circulations types such as the Großwetterlagen (Gerstengarbe et al. 1999) or the Lamb circulation types (Lamb 1972). Recently, Blenckner and Chen ( 2003) used a set of regional circulation indices established for Scandinavia and showed that these indices can indeed explain a larger part of interannual variability in limnological variables such as the Lake Erken duration of ice cover, timing of ice-break-up and phytoplankton spring bloom than the NAO (Blenckner and Chen 2003). Although variability in state variables measured from a variety of river and lake systems all over Europe were successfully linked to climate proxies during the recent years, it is important to note that this success may be only temporary. That is, established relationships may break down if time series were continued, because the ealier-observed influences were non-stationary. For example, the effect of ENSO on weather patterns in Europe and the Middle East is not robust on inter-decadel time scales. The relationship between ENSO and Lake Kinneret water level is only apparent during the last three decades (Price et al. 1998). This is in line, with a shift in the relationship of the ENSO – Red Sea coral record during the 1970s, which was attributed to non-stationarity in the ENSO teleconecction pattern (Rimbu et al. 2003). Also in Europe non-stationarity between ENSO and precipitation has been recorded (Mariotti et al. 2002; Knippertz et al. 2003). It is quite possible that not only ENSO, but also the NAO influence may be non-stationary. For example, the impact of NAO on ice-break up in certain regions varies over time (Livingstone 2000; Straile et al. 2003) (Figure IV.A.4). Significant relationships between the NAO and ice-break up in Lakes Baikal/Russia and San Murezzan/Switzerland do not exist in a period from the 1980s to the 1960s, but are only evident when more recent years were included. Hence, the relationship between climate indices and lake state variables should not be used to predict changes in state variables. Rather, their great value is due to the fact that they may allow insights into the mechanisms of climate and meteorological forcing of freshwater systems. 50
correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 1861 - 1910 P = 0.05 P = 0.10 1871 - 1920 1881 - 1930 1891 - 1940 51 BAIKAL 1901 - 1950 1911 - 1960 S. MUREZZAN 1921 - 1970 1931 - 1980 DATA WINDOW Figure IV.A.4. Running correlation of a 50 years time window between ice-break-up data from the lakes Baikal and San Murrezan and the NAO Index (modified from (Straile et al. 2003)) 1941 - 1990 1951 - 2000
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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