Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

of methods for rainfall point and spatial measurement, estimates, prediction and modeling see Smith (1993). Precipitation and climate change Annual precipitation trends in the 20 th century included enhanced precipitation (10 to 50%) in the northern half of Europe. By contrast, the region stretching from the Mediterranean Sea through central Europe into the European part of the Russian Federation and Ukraine experienced decreases in precipitation by as much as 20% in some areas (Figure III.3). Figure III.3. Annual precipitation trends in Europe for the period 1900-1999. Black represents an increase; white represents a decrease (EEA, 2004). Predictions of climate change are subject to large uncertainty. Changes in global precipitations are influenced by changes in global mean temperatures. Even where the likely global trend appears to be clear, the response in individual regions may vary substantially. Thus, although global temperatures are predicted to increase by 1 to 3.5 °C by the year 2100 (Nicholls et al., 1996) the actual rise in individual areas will differ significantly, and some regions may even become cooler. Increasing temperatures mean also that a smaller proportion of precipitation may fall as snow. In areas where snowfall currently is marginal, snow may cease to occur altogether, with significant implications for hydrological regimes (e.g. spring river flows where snowmelt plays a significant role). Global average precipitation is predicted to rise, but this increase is also likely to be regional. It is predicted that winter and spring precipitation will increase in Europe and summer precipitation will decrease, although the Mediterranean region and central and eastern Europe are expected to experience overall reduced precipitation (Kovats et al., 2000; see also Figure III.4). Recent scenarios for the UK, derived from HadCM2 experiments, indicate an increase in the relative variability of seasonal and annual rainfall totals resulting from global warming (Hulme and Jenkins, 1998). Although global mean precipitation is primarily constrained by the energy budget, the heaviest rainfalls are likely to occur when effectively all the moisture in a volume of 38
Figure III.4. Projected change in summer precipitation (%) in Europe up to 2080, relative to average precipitation in the period 1961-1990 (based on intermediate ACACIA scenario; EEA, 2004). air is precipitated out, thus suggesting that the intensity of these events will increase with the availability of moisture. Therefore the incidence of heavy precipitation and drought events is also predicted to increase, which suggests implications not only for increased contamination resulting from run-off but also decreased groundwater recharge and an increased incidence of flooding. Moreover, changing precipitation rates affect rates of chemical weathering of silicate rocks, and hence ultimately the carbon dioxide content of the atmosphere. Among the anthropogenic factors for climate change are anthropogenic carbon dioxide and aerosols of various origins. Such changes could have a large impact on the hydrologic cycle. For example, sulphate aerosols from volcanic and anthropogenic sources in the stratosphere and in the troposphere may increase the scattering of sunlight away from space, either directly or via effects on clouds. Aerosols can also produce direct tropospheric heating, with similar effects to CO2 on the hydrologic cycle. Aerosols can also influence precipitations. Already in 1968 Warner (1968) deduced that aerosol emissions from sugar cane fires were affecting precipitation by examining rainfall records from Western Australia. Aerosol-induced precipitation suppression has been observed both with in situ measurements (Ferek et al., 2000), and in satellite observations (Rosenfeld, 2000) showing that the effect does in fact occur in the atmosphere. If precipitation is suppressed, water that would have been removed from the atmosphere remains aloft and can be transported to other locations before it is deposited to the surface. The same is true for the energy associated with such water—the latent heat released on condensation in clouds and the energy required for evaporation of water from the surface. The redistribution of 39
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
Page 15 and 16: century. This corresponds to a sea
Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19 and 20: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 21 and 22: Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25 and 26: The projected warming is not unifor
Page 27 and 28: water towards the west Pacific caus
Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
Page 33 and 34: precipitation intensities have been
Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
Page 37: Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
Page 43 and 44: characteristics may or may not be u
Page 45 and 46: temperatures potentially lead to hi
Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
Page 51 and 52: correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
Page 53 and 54: Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
Page 55 and 56: numbers refer to water bodies bigge
Page 57 and 58: Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
Page 59 and 60: quality degradation and meet the in
Page 61 and 62: sufficient resolution and accuracy
Page 63 and 64: Windermere in the English Lake Dist
Page 65 and 66: their vertical structure. In partic
Page 67 and 68: have recently described a method th
Page 69 and 70: The available evidence suggests tha
Page 71 and 72: 1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
Page 73 and 74: The projected increase in the atmos
Page 75 and 76: Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
Page 77 and 78: vertical bars are a simple measure
Page 79 and 80: values, with an upper limit of 30°
Page 83 and 84: the processes controlling, regional
Page 85 and 86: Sea level rise is partially due to
Page 87 and 88: Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
Page 89 and 90:
and organic material more rapidly t
Page 91 and 92:
suggesting that climate rather than
Page 93 and 94:
CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
Page 95 and 96:
looms are often associated with tox
Page 97 and 98:
events of dense water through the D
Page 99 and 100:
(1) Are we already observing a resp
Page 101 and 102:
eastern and western side of the Nor
Page 103 and 104:
system, their physiology and intern
Page 105 and 106:
each coastal element be studied and
Page 107 and 108:
IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
Page 109 and 110:
In the last decade, a general model
Page 111 and 112:
topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
Page 113 and 114:
Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
Page 115 and 116:
esilient to environmental changes a
Page 117 and 118:
Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
Page 119 and 120:
It is realized that adaptation to c
Page 121 and 122:
Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 123 and 124:
member states. Moreover some agenci
Page 125 and 126:
Large, global scale climatic driver
Page 127 and 128:
V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
Page 129 and 130:
Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
Page 131 and 132:
In European forest policy, water is
Page 133 and 134:
Drought mitigation and the involvem
Page 135 and 136:
DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
Page 137 and 138:
Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
Page 139 and 140:
The quality class boundaries within
Page 141 and 142:
An example of this kind of relation
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
Page 147 and 148:
een observed in southwestern countr
Page 149 and 150:
Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
Page 155 and 156:
Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
Page 157 and 158:
Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
Page 159 and 160:
Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
Page 161 and 162:
TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
Page 163 and 164:
Data availability and investigation
Page 165 and 166:
smaller volume of water. The warmer
Page 167 and 168:
Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
Page 169 and 170:
Concerning the flora of the lagoon
Page 171 and 172:
Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
Page 177 and 178:
Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
Page 179 and 180:
factors including an appropriate su
Page 181 and 182:
with the lower limit range indicate
Page 183 and 184:
Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
Page 185 and 186:
the main carrier of nutrients to gr
Page 187 and 188:
system pathway shows an increase of
Page 189 and 190:
Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
Page 191 and 192:
Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
Page 193 and 194:
Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
Page 195 and 196:
Many studies during the 90’s have
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
severe flooding were investigated (
Page 201 and 202:
Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
Page 203 and 204:
Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
Page 205 and 206:
Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Second, the chemical is transported
Page 211 and 212:
POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
Page 213 and 214:
and ice have quite a low capacity t
Page 215 and 216:
Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
Page 221 and 222:
31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
Page 223 and 224:
28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
Page 225 and 226:
63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
Page 227 and 228:
99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
Page 229 and 230:
136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
Page 231 and 232:
14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
Page 233 and 234:
60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
Page 235 and 236:
105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
Page 237 and 238:
ecosystems and the landscape and de
Page 239 and 240:
2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
Page 241 and 242:
24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
Page 243 and 244:
European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
Page 245 and 246:
4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
Page 247 and 248:
variable trophic status: a paired l
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
Page 253:
Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
show all

Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

Create successful ePaper yourself

Delete template?

Save as template?