Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ] Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ] Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ] Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ] Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ] significant contribution (35% of the total). Phosphorus is released primarily by WWTPs and urban systems (64%), but the erosion, tile drainage and groundwater pathways are significant (31%). The modelling process shows, as expected, the strong dependence of nutrient fluxes on the water balance. Table-VI.C.6: Assumptions adopted for the A, B, C scenarios for modelling nutrients dynamics in the Po Catchment. Scenario Hypothesis 2025 2050 2100 A Variation of Continental precipitation. [mm day -1 ] Heavy precipitation events: -0,25 -0,35 -0,50 B % Increase in number of days with storm water events. Variation of maximum +15 % +30% +50% C Groundwater recharge value. [mm] 1500 1000 700 The selected scenarios hereafter analysed were based on IPCC scenarios (IPCC, 2001) assuming a doubling of atmospheric CO2 by 2030. These scenarios were based on the projection of Changes in Total Emission Changes in Total Emission selected key parameters 262,969 - 2 % - 2.2% Nitrogen 10,386 - 0,2 % - 0,2% Phosophorus - 1% including temperature, precipitation, wind, air - 4.5% humidity, soil moisture as suggested in IPCC (2001) 2000 2025 2050 2100 2000 2025 2050 2100 and detailed in Table- Emission Changes in Groundwater Pathway Emission Changes in Groundwater Pathway VI.C.5 and Table-VI.C.6. 95,830 - 4.9 % - 6,1% - 12% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Overland Flow Pathway 4169 - 8 % - 11% - 16% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Urban System Pathway 24,091 - 2 % - 1,4% - 1,6% 2000 2025 2050 2100 959 Emission Changes in Erosion Pathway - 1,3 % - 2% - 3% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ] Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ] Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ] Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ] 862 - 0,9 % - 2,4% 186 - 5,2% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Overland flow Pathway 383 - 0,9 % - 2,4% - 5,2% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Urban System Pathway 3,010 -1,9 % - 1,7% - 1,4% 2000 2025 2050 2100 836 EmissionChanges in Erosion Pathway -1,3 % - 2% - 3% 2000 2025 2050 2100 Figure-VI.C.8: Effects of precipitation changes on nutrients emission assuming the 2001 as reference year. Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ] Scenario A Projected total emission (in 2100) of nitrogen and phosphorus show a 4.5% and 1% reduction, respectively. Although the overall N and P projected reductions are small their relative variation for each transport pathway can be substantial. Transport by the overland flow and groundwater pathways show a relevant decrease for both nutrients with a decrease in precipitation, this effect is primarily caused by a reduction of runoff into rivers affecting the nitrogen mobility within the soil. Meanwhile, the urban
system pathway shows an increase of both N and P emissions related to changes in their inputs from urban areas, for which the contribution derives from a wide array of sources e.g., households, industrial indirect discharge, traffic, paved and unpaved areas, these were estimated separately and later lumped in the same category. An opposite behaviour of nutrients emission pathways is expected with changes in water balance. Scenario B The major outcome of this scenario is that heavy precipitation events do not result in significant variation of nutrient loadings with total N and P loading varying by 2% Nitrogen emission [mg*y -1] 24091 3010 Emission Changes in urban system pathway + 0,7 % + 0,6 % % + 1,4 % + 1,1 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 and 0.7%, respectively (Figure- VI.C.9). Assuming a constant precipitation, the observed variations are due only to changes in the number of precipitation events; it is important to point out that the influence of relevant processes such as e.g., erosion, leaching and overland flow, was not considered in this preliminary analysis. Among the possible pathways, the urban system exerts a considerable effect on the nutrient load changes, variations of +1.8% for N and +2,3 % for P are expected primarily due to the direct relationship between the number of storms events and nutrient emissions. +1,8 % + 2,3 % nitrogen phosophorus Phosphorous emission [mg*y-1] Nitrogen emission [mg*y -1] Nitrogen emission [mg*y -1] Nitrogen emission [mg*y -1] Scenario C This scenario is aimed at the evaluation of nutrient emission changes with the maximum groundwater recharge (see Table-VI.C.6.) This scenario highlights some “indirect effects” of climate change involving water resources. The total emission of nutrients shows a small decrease expected for the year 2100 (Figure-VI.C.10). A 262,969 187 Changes in Total emission - 0,6 % - 3,2 % - 6 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Groundwater pathway 95,830 - 1,6 % - 9,3 % - 18 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Overland Flow pathway 4,536 Nitrogen emission [mg*y -1] + 2,2 % 262.969 10.386 + 13,5 % + 23,4 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Changes in Total emission + 0,5 % +0,2 % nitrogen Phosophorus emission [mg*y -1 ] Phosophorus emission [mg*y -1] Phosophorus emission [mg*y -1] 600 500 400 300 10,386 - 0,3% Changes in Total emission - 1,3 % - 1,5 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Groundwater pathway 862 - 5 % - 23 % phosophorus - 38 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Emission Changes in Overland Flow pathway 445 + 2,2 % + 13,5 % + 23,4 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 Figure-VI.C.10: Effects of groundwater recharge changes on nutrients emission assuming the 2001 as reference year. + 1 % + 0,4 % 2001 2025 2050 2100 + 2 % + 0,7 % nitrogen phosophorus Figure-VI.C.9: Effects of heavy precipitation events change on nutrients emission assuming the 2001 as reference year. Phosphorous emission [mg*y-1]
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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