Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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The temperature record over the last 1000 years (Figure I.1) has been constructed using a combination of temperature measurements and proxies. It shows that the temperature increase in the last 140 years is unprecedented within this time span. I.B. Precipitation Intuitively we expect that evaporation would increase with increasing temperatures, and, in fact, all atmospheric general circulation models predict enhanced evaporation of water. Also an increase in atmospheric moisture has been predicted by models and confirmed by many observations. Increased evaporation must obviously be balanced by increased precipitation. Also the observation that atmospheric moisture is increasing leads to the expectation that precipitation will increase. Increased evaporation means also that more latent heat will be released in the atmosphere, and this may lead to more intense storms. The overall result would be an intensification of the hydrological cycle with increased precipitation at a global scale, but concentrated in more intense events. This possible trend towards more extreme weather events will be discussed later. Precipitation is measured at a large number at stations within Europe and globally. Analysis of observations shows an increase of about 2% in global land precipitation since the beginning of the 20 th century. This increase, however, is neither temporally nor spatially uniform (see Figure I.2). The observed increase in the annual precipitation for the zones between 30 0 N to 85 0 N is between 7 and 12% while the increase in the Southern Hemisphere between 0 0 S and 55 0 S is about 2%. The increase observed in the Northern Hemisphere is likely to be biased because the data have not been corrected for the fact that an increasing fraction of the precipitation is in liquid rather than frozen form, again due to increasing temperature. However, this bias is expected to be small, and the increasing trend is significant, although it is unsteady, e.g. interrupted by drought years in some areas. The trend towards increasing precipitation has been confirmed by analyses of data from the United States that show increasing streamflows. A clearly increasing precipitation trend over the 20 th century has been reported for Northern Europe, while the tendency for Southern Europe and the Mediterranean Area in general has been towards less precipitation. Significant increases in precipitation over the 20 th century have been found also for USA and Canada and parts of the former USSR. China has experienced a slightly negative trend in precipitation over the last 50 years, but with large geographical variations. The TAR concludes that the present increase in precipitation over the middle and high northern latitudes will continue at a rate between 0.5 and 1% per decade, except for over Eastern Asia. In contrast to the significant increases in precipitation in the mid- and high northern latitudes, the trends observed in the tropics and sub-tropics show a more complex picture; e.g. a decrease in precipitation in the northern sub-tropics. The effects of aerosols on the hydrological cycle will be discussed later. 12
Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid coverage in dataset. Black boxes do not have five years of data per decade from 1900 to 1996. (b). Observed terrestrial precipitation 1900-1996 (% deviation from 1961-1990 mean). The increasing trend is pronounced only in the first half of the century. (Hulme et al., 1998). I.C. Snow/ice cover Increasing temperatures will naturally be associated with melting of ice on mountains and in Polar Regions. It is also expected that a larger part of the precipitation will be liquid water rather than snow. This tendency may be counteracted by increasing precipitation as well as by changes in atmospheric or ocean circulation patterns. There are important feedbacks between changes in snow and ice cover and climate change. These feedbacks include the influence of snow and ice cover on surface albedo and the influence of melt/freeze processes on sea surface salinity and deepwater formation. Of particular relevance to climate change is the sea-ice cover in the Arctic and around the Antarctic; these areas cover about 5% of the global surface. Satellite observations over the period 1978 to 1996 showed a decrease in sea-ice extent in the Northern Hemisphere of –2.8±0.3% per decade. The coverage of earlier data is incomplete, but they suggest that the decline in Arctic ice-cover was not pronounced during the first half of the 20 th century. The recent decrease in ice-cover is consistent with observed Arctic temperature changes. Recent observations have also indicated a reduction in the thickness of the Arctic sea-ice. In the Antarctic, five ice shelves have retreated during the last century; recently (1995) the collapse of the Prince Gustav and parts of the Larsen ice shelves were reported. However, satellite 13
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 11: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 15 and 16: century. This corresponds to a sea
Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19 and 20: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 21 and 22: Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25 and 26: The projected warming is not unifor
Page 27 and 28: water towards the west Pacific caus
Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
Page 33 and 34: precipitation intensities have been
Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
Page 37 and 38: Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
Page 39 and 40: Figure III.4. Projected change in s
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
Page 43 and 44: characteristics may or may not be u
Page 45 and 46: temperatures potentially lead to hi
Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
Page 51 and 52: correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
Page 53 and 54: Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
Page 55 and 56: numbers refer to water bodies bigge
Page 57 and 58: Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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