Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

step-by-step analysis shows that high reductions in N (18%) and P (28%) are
expected with changes in the groundwater pathway, whereas increases of 23% in N
load and 23% in P load are expected to occur with changes in overland flow. The
decrease of emissions within the groundwater pathway is related to the reduction of
ground water volumes, while the increase of emissions in overland flow is due to the
change of water dynamics through the soil.
VI.C.3 Final remarks
In order to identify optimal strategies to reduce eutrophication in the NA Coastal Zone
there is a strong need to improve our understanding of the long-term effects of
Climate Change in combination with projected changes in socio economic indicators.
Our preliminary evaluation for the Po Catchment-NA coastal zone continuum
suggests that climate changes may lead to significant variations in natural conditions
producing effects on major driving forces related to eutrophication (see Table-VI.C.7).
One of the major effects of Climate Change at the Po catchment scale is a significant
variation in the water balance due to the reduction of precipitation. Thus, as a
consequence, the natural system will likely be altered, with a reduction of water
resources and the increase in water demand for both human consumption and
productive activities, especially agriculture the major high water consumption
economic activity in the Po Basin. Moreover, changes in natural conditions, as the
increase of extreme events, will likely modify the terrestrial system and exacerbate
environmental problems caused by habitat loss leading to a reduction of biodiversity
(animal species extinction). Meanwhile, in the North Adriatic Sea the effects of
climate change combined with socio-economic development could seriously alter
natural conditions not only in terms of eutrophication but also in terms of habitat
destruction biodiversity loss, coastal erosion and loss of wetland areas.
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