Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

More documents

Recommendations

Info

Figure I.6. Projected changes in precipitation for a medium level emission scenario (IPCC 2001) The estimate made in the TAR Arctic and Antarctic ice sheets takes only snowfall, sublimation and melting into account. The NASA scientist James Hansen (Hansen, 2003 and references therein) argues that there are non-linear processes and feedbacks that may lead to an accelerated, much faster collapse of ice sheets. This prediction is supported by paleoclimate data: it seems that the sea-level during the previous (Eemian) interglacial period was 5-6 meters higher than today. In order to reach the temperatures of the Eemian period an additional average global warming of only about 1 0 C is needed. Paleoclimatic evidence shows also that deglaciation can be rapid: deglaciation after the last ice age gave about 1 m sea level rise every 20 years for several centuries. An additional contribution to the melting of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets may come from warming due to increased surface absorption of sunlight because of deposition of black carbon particles (Hansen, 2004). Extreme Events Model simulations suggest that the frequency of some extreme events will increase over the 21 st century, while in other cases the frequency of extremes may be reduced (e.g. the number of frost days). Table I.2 summarises the findings. I.J. Interannual climate oscillations Global climate is influenced by large-scale natural oscillations. The strongest of these natural fluctuations is the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This phenomenon is related to a change in the ocean-atmosphere system over the tropical Pacific, which normally is characterised by a situation where the trade winds push warm surface 26
water towards the west Pacific causing a gradient in the sea surface level across the Pacific and upwelling of cold water at the east side of the ocean. ENSO is associated with a relaxation of the trade winds that stops the upwelling of cold water and leads to unusually high temperatures in the tropical Pacific. This eventually leads to changes in the atmospheric circulation that extend to influence the weather around the globe. The opposite phase of ENSO is called La Niña and leads to unusually low temperatures in the tropical Pacific. ENSO occurs irregularly with two to seven years intervals and its most intense phase lasts around one year. Extreme temperature events have been observed during the 1997/98 El Niño event. Other mechanisms leading to interannual oscillations of climate are known; the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Arctic Oscillation are particularly important for climate variations in Europe. These oscillations have longer time scales than ENSO. There is growing understanding of the role of these oscillations and global climate models are now starting to reproduce variations that resemble ENSO. Current models show little change or a small increase in the intensity over the next hundred years. However, as the ‘baselines’ for variables such as temperature and precipitation changes with global warming, also an El Niño event of normal intensity is likely to lead to greater extremes. Confidence in the observed changes (latter half of the 20 th century) Likely Very likely Very likely Likely, over many areas Likely, over many Northern Hemisphere mid- to high- latitude land areas Not observed in the few analyses available Insufficient data for assessment Changes in phenomenon Confidence in the projected changes (during the 21 century) Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas Higher maximum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all land areas Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas Increase of heat index a over land areas More intense precipitation events Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities a) Heat index: A combination of temperature and humidity that measures effects on human comfort. 27 Very likely Very likely Very likely Very likely, over most areas Very likely, over many areas Likely, over some areas Likely, over some areas Table I.2. Estimates of confidence in observed and projected changes in extreme weather and climate events (IPCC, 2001)
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
Page 15 and 16: century. This corresponds to a sea
Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19 and 20: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 21 and 22: Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25: The projected warming is not unifor
Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
Page 33 and 34: precipitation intensities have been
Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
Page 37 and 38: Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
Page 39 and 40: Figure III.4. Projected change in s
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
Page 43 and 44: characteristics may or may not be u
Page 45 and 46: temperatures potentially lead to hi
Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
Page 51 and 52: correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
Page 53 and 54: Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
Page 55 and 56: numbers refer to water bodies bigge
Page 57 and 58: Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
Page 59 and 60: quality degradation and meet the in
Page 61 and 62: sufficient resolution and accuracy
Page 63 and 64: Windermere in the English Lake Dist
Page 65 and 66: their vertical structure. In partic
Page 67 and 68: have recently described a method th
Page 69 and 70: The available evidence suggests tha
Page 71 and 72: 1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
Page 73 and 74: The projected increase in the atmos
Page 75 and 76: Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
Page 77 and 78:
vertical bars are a simple measure
Page 79 and 80:
values, with an upper limit of 30°
Page 81 and 82:
Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 83 and 84:
the processes controlling, regional
Page 85 and 86:
Sea level rise is partially due to
Page 87 and 88:
Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
Page 89 and 90:
and organic material more rapidly t
Page 91 and 92:
suggesting that climate rather than
Page 93 and 94:
CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
Page 95 and 96:
looms are often associated with tox
Page 97 and 98:
events of dense water through the D
Page 99 and 100:
(1) Are we already observing a resp
Page 101 and 102:
eastern and western side of the Nor
Page 103 and 104:
system, their physiology and intern
Page 105 and 106:
each coastal element be studied and
Page 107 and 108:
IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
Page 109 and 110:
In the last decade, a general model
Page 111 and 112:
topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
Page 113 and 114:
Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
Page 115 and 116:
esilient to environmental changes a
Page 117 and 118:
Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
Page 119 and 120:
It is realized that adaptation to c
Page 121 and 122:
Page 123 and 124:
member states. Moreover some agenci
Page 125 and 126:
Large, global scale climatic driver
Page 127 and 128:
V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
Page 129 and 130:
Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
Page 131 and 132:
In European forest policy, water is
Page 133 and 134:
Drought mitigation and the involvem
Page 135 and 136:
DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
Page 137 and 138:
Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
Page 139 and 140:
The quality class boundaries within
Page 141 and 142:
An example of this kind of relation
Page 143 and 144:
Page 145 and 146:
Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
Page 147 and 148:
een observed in southwestern countr
Page 149 and 150:
Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
Page 151 and 152:
Page 153 and 154:
Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
Page 155 and 156:
Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
Page 157 and 158:
Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
Page 159 and 160:
Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
Page 161 and 162:
TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
Page 163 and 164:
Data availability and investigation
Page 165 and 166:
smaller volume of water. The warmer
Page 167 and 168:
Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
Page 169 and 170:
Concerning the flora of the lagoon
Page 171 and 172:
Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
Page 173 and 174:
Page 175 and 176:
Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
Page 177 and 178:
Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
Page 179 and 180:
factors including an appropriate su
Page 181 and 182:
with the lower limit range indicate
Page 183 and 184:
Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
Page 185 and 186:
the main carrier of nutrients to gr
Page 187 and 188:
system pathway shows an increase of
Page 189 and 190:
Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
Page 191 and 192:
Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
Page 193 and 194:
Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
Page 195 and 196:
Many studies during the 90’s have
Page 197 and 198:
Page 199 and 200:
severe flooding were investigated (
Page 201 and 202:
Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
Page 203 and 204:
Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
Page 205 and 206:
Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
Page 207 and 208:
Page 209 and 210:
Second, the chemical is transported
Page 211 and 212:
POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
Page 213 and 214:
and ice have quite a low capacity t
Page 215 and 216:
Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
Page 217 and 218:
Page 219 and 220:
22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
Page 221 and 222:
31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
Page 223 and 224:
28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
Page 225 and 226:
63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
Page 227 and 228:
99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
Page 229 and 230:
136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
Page 231 and 232:
14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
Page 233 and 234:
60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
Page 235 and 236:
105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
Page 237 and 238:
ecosystems and the landscape and de
Page 239 and 240:
2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
Page 241 and 242:
24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
Page 243 and 244:
European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
Page 245 and 246:
4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
Page 247 and 248:
variable trophic status: a paired l
Page 249 and 250:
Page 251 and 252:
France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
Page 253:
Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
show all

Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

You also want an ePaper? Increase the reach of your titles

Delete template?

Save as template?