Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Figure VI.C.5. Precipitation trends across Europe (Klein Tank et al., 2002). Accepting such uncertainties in assessing the actual magnitude of precipitation reduction, the decrease in river runoff for the Ebro basin is likely to be ~ 0-12% of the mean annual runoff by the year 2050. However, because the Pyrenees contributes about 70% of the total water runoff, it is doubtful whether higher decreases of river runoff should be considered. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns will in turn affect runoff patterns, thus urging more efficient management of water resources for domestic, agricultural, and industrial use, and runoff regulation for flood protection, especially in large river basins such as the Ebro. The occurrence and magnitude of drought events might also increase, giving in turn rise to further deterioration of the watershed (exacerbating erosion), depletion of overexploited freshwater resources and decline in surface and groundwater quality. One must bear in mind that, other than increasing air temperature and decreasing precipitation due to climate change, river flows and water quality may be affected also by anthropogenic factors, such as increased water abstraction from the Ebro, changes in water demand patterns, growing pressure from farming and agricultural activities (increasing discharge of nutrient and pesticides), change in agricultural practice and land cover, and industrial development. In the attempt to assess longterm effects of climate change, and separate those from the effects of anthropogenic activities, significant water savings could result from the improvements to the irrigation infrastructure being planned for the Ebro catchment, thus compensating for increased demands linked to climate change-driven increasing temperature (PHN, 2000). However, research is needed to test this assertion. A further reduction in the Ebro flow might endanger the already tenuous equilibrium between species in the river and its delta. In particular, concern exists about the protection of the endangered fresh water mussel Margaritifera auricularia (exclusively found in the Ebro) and ephemeroptera Ephoron virgo (very rare in many of the large rivers of Europe). In particular, the survival of the mussel is dependent upon many 178
factors including an appropriate substrate and an adequate flow regime. In addition, the presence of certain fish species is necessary to transport the larval stages of the mollusk upstream for development and recruitment of new adults. No general agreement exists on whether new flow regimes fostered by climate change are compatible with survival of the mussel in the main river channel. Reduced flows will result in a diminished diluting power in the Ebro. Thus freshwater quality could decrease as a consequence of decreasing flow and/or increasing discharges from agricultural fields and from treatment plants in the Ebro River. Decreased flows would also lead to increasing salt wedge at the river delta. Such effect could be compensated by accurately gauging releases of freshwater from upstream dams. However, no consensus exists on the estimate of appropriate releases. Current knowledge supports the idea that there will be a further increase in salinity in winter and spring months and an increase in phosphorous (from agricultural fields) as a consequence of the decrease in spring flows, fostering an increase of primary production (phytoplankton or macroalgae) in the lower reaches of the river. Increased salinity in the spring may affect survival of some macroinvertebrates, especially the clam Margaritifera and the ephemeroptera Ephoron. The effects on fish fauna may be even more dramatic: the native species are adapted to the fluctuations of the river hydrology, while the invasive species are more adapted to constant flow and eutrophic waters; a switch towards latter conditions may cause the definite disappearance of the today much reduced native fish populations. In summary, climate-change-driven decreasing flows in the Ebro River will have a further detrimental effect on the ecological status of the lower part of the watershed. Transport of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from terrestrial ecosystems to freshwater and, eventually to coastal waters is also an important factor in maintaining the equilibrium of coastal ecosystems. Hejzlar et al. (2003) have investigated the effects of climate change on the concentration of DOM. They report a negative correlation between DOM concentration and temperature in well drained soils, whereas in poorly drained soils, DOM concentration tends to increase independent of temperature. Scenarios of possible future climate change related to double atmospheric CO2 concentration suggests an increase in DOM concentration of about 7%, resulting from a complex of not yet well understood processes. The productivity of the coastal waters in the region of the Ebro is closely linked to both the total flow volume of water discharged into the sea and the amount of particulate matter and DOM. In general, it is suggested that decreasing flow in the river would have an impact on the productivity of the contiguous coastal areas. Satellite images of chlorophyll a biomass in the Mediterranean Sea show how areas of high productivity overlap with the run-off of the main rivers: the Rhone, the Ebro, the Po and the Evros. In particular the area overlapping with the wide continental shelf off the Ebro River mouth has large populations of foraging seabirds, whether or not associated with industrial fishing vessels (Abelló et al. 2003), and is one of the main spawning areas of small pelagics in the western Mediterranean. Sea level rise The deltaic body of the Ebro River has developed its present 50 km of sandy shoreline over the last five centuries. The main morphological features are two sandy spits that protrude to form lagoon areas. The delta is a biologically rich and diverse environment (waterfowls, fisheries, vegetation), and supports a large economic system based on tourism, agriculture, hunting, fishing and aquaculture. The existence of the delta area is dependent of the steady supply of sediments 179
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
Page 127 and 128: V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
Page 129 and 130: Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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Page 133 and 134: Drought mitigation and the involvem
Page 135 and 136: DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Page 139 and 140: The quality class boundaries within
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Page 143 and 144: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 145 and 146: Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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Page 149 and 150: Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Page 159 and 160: Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
Page 161 and 162: TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
Page 163 and 164: Data availability and investigation
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Page 175 and 176: Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Page 189 and 190: Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Page 201 and 202: Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Page 209 and 210: Second, the chemical is transported
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Page 219 and 220: 22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
Page 221 and 222: 31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
Page 223 and 224: 28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
Page 225 and 226: 63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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