Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Table V.B.1 Minimum economic cost of recent major drought events in Europe (from Munich Re 3 , EEA, COPA-COGECA and other sources) Period Region / Countries affected Economic costs ( € billion) 1976-77 Western Europe Cost of building damage due to land subsidence in London alone estimated at € 800 million 1981- 82 Iberian Peninsula (Portugal, Spain, Southern France, Corsica, Italy) > 5.0 1988- 91 Mediterranean Region (Portugal, Spain, Southern France, Italy, Albania, Greece) > 2.1 1992- 94 Eastern Europe (Germany, Denmark, Poland, Lithuania, Hungary, Yugoslavia, Ukraine, Moldova) > 1.1 1992- 95 Spain > 3.7 2000 Central Europe ( Romania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Yugoslavia, Czech Rep, Turkey, Germany) 2003 Europe ( Romania, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Greece, Yugoslavia, Czech Rep, Austria, Switzerland, Italy, Germany, Belgium, Denmark, Netherlands, Norway, UK, France, Spain, Portugal) 124 > 0.5 > 13.0 What causes European droughts? Droughts are complex phenomena, the result of a combination of meteorological conditions (low rainfall and high temperatures), land surface conditions (land use, soil moisture conditions), and water use practices. Northern and southern European droughts tend to be caused by different meteorological conditions, and land use and water resource management practices. The common problems range from the need for more effective drought forecasting and monitoring, to the development of holistic drought mitigation strategies. Three general types of drought may be recognized: meteorological droughts – defined on the basis of rainfall deficiency; hydrological droughts – where accumulated shortfalls in river flows or groundwater replenishment are of primary importance; and agricultural droughts where the availability of soil water through the growing season is the critical factor. During lengthy droughts, all three categories may combine to increase water stress. High temperatures are not a necessary component of drought conditions, dry winters can lead to water resources stress in the following summer. But high temperatures were certainly influential in 2003, and may be expected to assume a greater importance in a warming world. V.B.3. Climate and climate variability For Europe, the dominant influence upon climate variability is the global atmospheric circulation pattern and, in particular the tracks followed by rain-bearing Atlantic frontal systems. When intense high-pressure systems develop and persist over continental Europe is when major droughts occur; normal rain bearing storms are blocked/diverted to either lower or higher latitudes. 3 Munich RE : NatCat Database of European droughts, heat waves and forest fires (1976-2003)
Large, global scale climatic drivers cause droughts. As a result droughts affect large areas and tend to continue for several seasons – causing “clusters” of drought years. Ultimately these systems can produce exceptionally protracted rainfall deficiencies such as occurred over much of western Europe during the late nineteenth and early twentieth century (Figure V.B.1) (Thomsen, 1993). There have been no close recent parallels to drought episodes of such duration but the 1975/76 drought was of unprecedented intensity over parts of Europe (from western Germany to the English Midlands) (Doorkamp et al., 1980) resulting in substantial agricultural and industrial losses and environmental stress. However, the event was perceived, at the time, to be extremely rare – with return periods exceeding 100 years in many regions. As a consequence, it did not provide a sufficiently strong stimulus for the development of cross-sectoral coping strategies appropriate for the potential increases in drought magnitude as global warming intensifies. These periods of drought (and indeed floods at the other end of the flow regime) show clear patterns, alternating between drought-rich and drought-poor times. See for example, in Figure V.B.1, the drought period of the 1880-1900’s replaced by wetter conditions around 1915. These sequences occur due to natural climate variability. Currently there is no statistically significant signal in this historical data to suggest a trend towards an increased frequency or magnitude of extremes. Natural variability (at all time scales) will also change with global warming over the next century, but there is much uncertainty associated with aspects of current climate change scenarios. Figure V.B.1.. The derivation of winter rainfall (November through March) from the Figure V.B.1. The derivation of winter rainfall (November through March) V.B.4. Water and Drought Management Reservoirs, rivers and aquifers are sustained not by rainfall directly but by that proportion which remains after evaporative demands have been met. Evaporation losses are concentrated in the summer half-year and impose a strong seasonality on river flows and groundwater replenishment. On average around three-quarters of Europe’s rainfall is lost to evaporation, the proportion increasing to >90% in the driest regions. Thus, variability in river flows and groundwater replenishment is normally much greater than for rainfall, with many parts of Europe being vulnerable to even small decreases in rainfall. Evaporation losses mean that relatively minor rainfall deficiencies can translate into large deficiencies in runoff and aquifer replenishment. Adequate river flow and groundwater monitoring networks are therefore essential to assess any climate-induced changes in drought episodes. 125
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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