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Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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O<strong>the</strong>r causes<br />

O<strong>the</strong>r causes of climate change include: deforestation <strong>and</strong> o<strong>the</strong>r changes in l<strong>and</strong>-use<br />

that enhance surface albedo. The largest effect is believed to be at high latitudes,<br />

where snow-covered fields with high albedo have replaced snow-covered forest with<br />

lower albedo. Warming due to increasing solar irradiance change has been taking<br />

place mainly in <strong>the</strong> first half of <strong>the</strong> 20 th century. O<strong>the</strong>r mechanisms by which<br />

emissions from <strong>the</strong> sun may influence climate have been proposed, but <strong>the</strong> IPCC has<br />

not found that <strong>the</strong>y have a sufficiently rigorous scientific basis. Stratospheric aerosols<br />

from explosive volcanic eruptions (e.g. Pinatubo) in lead to cooling that lasts a few<br />

years.<br />

I.G. Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions<br />

The majority of <strong>the</strong> important greenhouse gases are compounds that are chemically<br />

inert or only slowly degraded by chemical reactions in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere. These gases<br />

tend to become well mixed in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere because of <strong>the</strong>ir long residence times.<br />

The most important example of such a greenhouse gas is CO2.<br />

The concentration of CO2 in <strong>the</strong> atmosphere remained stable at 280±10 ppmV for<br />

several thous<strong>and</strong> years until <strong>the</strong> beginning of <strong>the</strong> Industrial Era in <strong>the</strong> middle of<br />

<strong>the</strong>18 th century. Since <strong>the</strong>n CO2 concentrations have been steadily increasing to<br />

reach a level of 367 ppmV in 1999. The Mauna Loa record depicts an 18.8%<br />

increase in <strong>the</strong> mean annual CO2 concentration, from 315.98 ppmv in 1959 to<br />

375.64 ppmv in 2003 (Figure I.3 ). The 1997-98 increase in <strong>the</strong> annual growth rate of<br />

2.87 ppmv represents <strong>the</strong> largest single yearly jump since <strong>the</strong> Mauna record began in<br />

1958 Three quarters of <strong>the</strong> present atmospheric increase is caused by fossil fuel<br />

burning while <strong>the</strong> last quarter is caused by l<strong>and</strong> use changes (mainly deforestation).<br />

These emissions are partially compensated by<br />

Figure I.3. CO2 Concentrations at Mauno Loa since 1958 (through<br />

Nov., 2004). (74Hhttp://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/sio-mlo.htm).<br />

17

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