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Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter IV.B. The Impact of Climate Change on Lakes in Europe Key Points • Response of lakes to climate forcing is most coherent for physical parameters: there is a high probability for earlier ice-out, increase of lake temperatures, and stronger thermal stratification in a warmer future. • Anticipated changes in the chemical regime of lakes (e.g. accelerated eutrophication, increase in water colour, and decrease in oxygen availability) are less coherent and depend strongly on lake type and local conditions. • Because of complex interactions, biological changes induced by climate change are inherently unpredictable. Small variations in climate can have dramatic effects on biota, especially in extreme habitats where many species, living at the limit of their capabilities, will perish • Lakes in the arctic, sub arctic, and alpine regions are particularly sensitive to climate change. At the same time, these are the areas where the highest and most rapid temperature increase is expected. 52
Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climate Change on Lakes in Europe IV. B.1. Introduction If present trends continue, climatologists predict that the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere will have doubled by the year 2050 (McCarthy et al., 2001). This increase will have a profound effect on the global climate and influence the seasonal dynamics of lakes throughout Europe. To date, there have been relatively few European studies on the impact of climate change on the dynamics of lakes. In North America, there have been a number of such studies that also highlight the geographic variation in the projected responses. These include studies on the potential effects of climate change on the Laurentian Great Lakes (Magnuson et al., 1997), the lakes of the Arctic and Sub arctic (Rouse et al., 1997) and the mountain lakes of the Pacific coast (Melack et al, 1997). Recently the Arctic Council (2004) published its report on “Impacts of a Warming Climate” also emphasizing the dramatic changes occurring now in Arctic lakes. In this review, potential effects of climate change on lakes in Europe are summarized. European lakes have recently been the subject of intensive study in several projects funded by the European Union (EUROLAKES, MANTRA-East, CLIME, EMERGE, PHYTOPLANKTON ON-LINE, ECOFRAME, HMLS). This review focuses especially on the products of the RTD FP5 project CLIME (Climate Impacts on European Lakes) that started in 2003 and is due to end in 2005 and is mainly based on data collected within this project and the foregoing project REFLECT from three European regions: the Northern Region, the Atlantic Region and the Alpine Region. Climate impact on lakes and reservoirs located in the Mediterranean region and in Central and Eastern Europe are analyzed basing on published data. In the review, our analysis of the impact of climate change is based on the output of two contrasting Regional Climate Models (Räisänen et al., 2004) and an analysis of the long-term changes recorded in a number of intensively studied lakes. Particular attention is paid to the effects of the more extreme inter-annual variations in the weather and the indirect as well as the direct effects of these climatic perturbations. A number of investigators have already examined the effects of global warming on water quantity (Boorman, 1997; Arnell, 1999) but very little attention has, hitherto, been paid to the effects on water quality. The review includes a number of case studies (Ch.VI.A) that illustrate some of the variations observed in four key lakes listed as Primary Sites in the CLIME project (www.water.hut.fi/clime). These lakes have been the subject of intensive study for more than 50 years and the observed variations provide a good indication of the sensitivity of these lakes to the changing climate. IV.B.2. The Distribution of Lakes in Europe Lakes are distributed unevenly in Europe. Norway, Finland and Sweden have numerous lakes accounting for approximately 5-10 per cent of the surface area of their repective countries (Table IV.B.1). A large number of lakes can also be found in Baltic countries, in northern parts of Poland and Germany, in Denmark, Ireland and in the northern and western parts of the United Kingdom. In Central Europe most natural lakes are situated in mountain regions, the ones at high altitude being relatively small and the ones in the valleys being the largest, examples being Lake Geneva, Lake Constance, Lake Garda and Lake Maggiore in the Alps. Mountainous Switzerland is especially rich in lakes. Generally, the percentage of lakes in the 53
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
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Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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