Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Extreme Events - Floods Key Points • The main driver of floods and droughts is extreme precipitation linked to regional soil moisture and atmospheric temperature. • Changes in extreme climate are likely to have a greater impact on society than changes in mean climate. • Flood magnitude and frequency are likely (a 66-90% probability) to increase in most regions of Europe. • Expected climate change will intensify the hydrological cycle causing dislocations and high costs in agriculture and urban areas. • The European summer climate will affect the incidence of heatwaves and droughts in the future. • Today's climate models are not yet adequate at predicting extreme climate events in local areas such as flooding in a given river basin, but climate change analysis on water resources needs to be done at the river basin scale. • With a rising likelihood of extreme weather conditions and resulting floods and droughts, the areas prone to these risks should be carefully mapped. 116
Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Extreme Events: Floods 2 V.A.1. Introduction The aim of this document is to provide a synthesis of what is currently known about possible climate changes in Europe and how these will affect the occurrence of extreme flood and drought events. Furthermore, known gaps and questions are defined. The document is intended as a basis to evaluate the link of climate change with water policies. Other aspects, such as adaptation and reduction, also are approached in the document. Main drivers for Flood and Drought Events The main driver for flood and drought events is extreme precipitation. Furthermore, increasing ambient air temperatures will increase heat stress and potential evaporation, which will change soil moisture availability and therefore directly influence the occurrence of droughts. Also, changing soil moisture conditions will affect the initial conditions for flood events: precipitation on drier soils can be buffered because of the increased soil water storage potential. A further driver for flood and drought events is the increased vulnerability to natural disasters due to growing urban population, environmental degradation and a lack of planning, land management and preparedness. Current Knowledge of Expected Climate Changes in Europe Schnur (2002) states that “changes in extreme climate, such as hot spells, droughts or floods, potentially have a much greater impact on society than changes in mean climate, such as summertime temperature averaged over several decades”. The Third Assessment Report on Climate Change (IPCC, 2001) states that “it is very likely (a 90-99% chance) that precipitation has increased by 0.5 to 1.0 % per decade in the 20 th century over most mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere continents” and that “in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere over the latter half of the 20 th century, it is likely (a 66-90% chance) that there has been a 2-4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events” As a consequence, it has been concluded (IPCC-McCarthy et al, 2001) that: “flood magnitude and frequency are likely (a 66-90% probability) to increase in most regions, and low flows are likely to decrease in many regions.” Palmer & Räisänen (2002) and Milly et al. (2002) concluded that the risk of extreme precipitation and flooding would increase in the future because of rising levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide. These conclusions are based on climate models that are run using a rate of net greenhouse gas increase that is twice the current observed value. Palmer and Räisänen (2002) find that in the winter over Europe, the probability of extremely high seasonal precipitation increases by about two to five times over the course of the next 50 to 100 years (Figure V.A.1). These changes appear because, in general, the climate models produce more precipitation in those regions when the greenhouse effect is enhanced. According to the authors, the "increase in CO2 [used in their models] is somewhat faster than is anticipated for the 21st century, but can be justified from the neglect of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases." 2 Acknowledgements: The following persons assisted in the establishment of this document by sending papers or through discussions: Prof. Axel Bronstert (Univ. Potsdam), Prof. Nigel Arnell (Tyndall), Prof. Paolo Burlando (ETH Zurich) and Dr. Lucas Menzel (PIK Potsdam). Their help is greatly appreciated. 117
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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