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and possibly elimination of seasonal migrants to shallow, ice-covered winterkill lakes. In temperate region, on the contrary, the risk of winter fish-kills is smaller in warmer winters. In response to higher temperatures, northern boreal populations of cyprinid and percid fish species are expected to increase at the expense of coldwater, salmonid species (Lehtonen, 1996). Shallow lakes would be most susceptible to these changes because of their lack of thermal stratification. Total freshwater fish production is expected to increase, but with the projected changes in the composition of fish fauna, the recreational and commercial value of catches will decrease (Lehtonen, 1996). IV.B.10. Ecosystem response of lakes In conclusion, different species as well as physical and chemical properties react differently because of their different interactions in the foodweb. However, some changes might be relevant on a species level, but all these single effects may weigh differently in the lake ecosystem as a whole. Petchy et al. (1999) conducted microcosm experiments to control species composition and rates of environmental change. They suggested that ecosystem responses are not as clear as studies of single trophic levels indicate. Complex responses generated in entire food webs greatly complicate inferences based on single functional groups. Here, the consideration of more general ecological concepts is needed in order to understand and synthesize climatic effects on lake ecosystems. The strength of food web interactions is characterized by many weak and few strong interactions (McCann et al., 1998). Weak links in particular act to dampen oscillations between consumers and resources (McCann et al., 1998) and presumably also environmental stressors, as climate extremes. This means that not all responses at a specific trophic level are propagated to lower trophic levels or have significant impacts on ecosystem processes (Pace et al., 1999). Additionally, a prolongation due to food web interactions is possible as the signal of winter climate can be detected in the clear water phase in early summer (Straile and Adrian, 2000) or in the summer phytoplankton composition and biomass (Weyhenmeyer, 2001; Blenckner et al., 2002). A system approach is necessary to examine the cascading effects in response to climatic change and variability. The magnitude of a climate-driven response of an autotrophic organism is not necessarily mediated or cascaded to the heterotrophic species, or vice versa. The potential for misleading inferences has been highlighted (Harrington et al., 1999). Furthermore, the non-linearity in the response to environmental variables (including climate) of animal and plants should be remembered (May, 1986; Mysterud et al., 2001), as smooth changes can be interrupted by drastic switches to a contrasting state of the ecosystem function (Scheffer et al., 2001). 80
Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter IV.C. Impact of Climate Change on Coastal Systems Key Points • Global warming is responsible for a rise in sea level of 1-2 mm/yr with a subsequent increase in coastal erosion, flooding, salinization of estuaries and land aquifers. • An intensification of the hydrological cycle has impacts on the water and salinity budget of coastal systems, coastal shape and productivity (eutrophication) leading to loss of habitats. • Global sea surface temperature has warmed by a mean of 0.6°C resulting in a re-distribution and loss of marine organisms, higher frequency of anomalous and toxic bloom events, and enhancement of hypoxia at depth • The response of coastal systems to climate forces varies regionally and is tightly coupled to human activities on land emphasizing the importance of downscaling models and statistics for proper assessment. • All forces act simultaneously and at different time scales in the coastal area, requiring long-term and synoptic data records to extract signals of natural variability from climate change trends. 81
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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