Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Stability (J m 2 ) The responses of thermally stratified lakes to changes in the flux of heat and the intensity of wind mixing are quite complex (Reynolds, 1984; Rouen et al., 2001). 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year Figure IV.B.1. Long-term variation in the summer stability of Esthwaite Water. Many of the seasonal changes recorded in the Atlantic Region are closely correlated with seasonal variations in the synoptic weather patterns (Lamb, 1972). Figure IV.B.1 shows the long-term variation in the summer stability of Esthwaite Water, a small thermally stratified lake in the English Lake District, in relation to the frequency of ‘anticyclonic’ days. In the forty-year period shown, there was a 15% increase in the number of calm summer days and the trend line fitted to the stability measurements is statistically significant at the 95% level. The scenarios produced by the United Kingdom Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP, 2002) suggest that this trend will continue into the foreseeable future with the summer reductions in wind speed being most pronounced in the east of Ireland and the north of the UK. Memory and Sensitivity of Lakes The length of the period for how long the climate signal can be observed depends on the lake morphometry. Gerten and Adrian (2001) found circulating polymictic lakes to be least influenced by the winter effects of the NAO, with an effect lasting only into early spring. In contrast, in a deep dimictic lake with stable summer stratification, the NAO signal persisted in the hypolimnion until the following winter. In high NAO years, hypolimnetic temperatures in this lake were up to 2ºC higher than in low NAO years. In very deep lakes that do not circulate fully each winter, a positive NAO phase may contribute to multi-annual deep water warming. Historical data sets of deep-water temperatures in Italian lakes reveal that a marked increase in the heat of the whole water mass is occurring, with evident changes in 64 6 5 4 3 2 1 Anticyclonic days
their vertical structure. In particular, there has been a reduction in the depths reached by the winter mixing over the last 40 years and, consequently, the deeper layers are progressively less affected by seasonal variations. The deep hypolimnion of lakes contains a “climatic memory” (represented by variations in the caloric content) from which is revealed thermal variations on a relatively long time scale, comparable with that of the ongoing climatic changes (Ambrosetti et al., 2003). The climatic memories of deep Italian sub alpine lakes are represented in Figure IV.B.2. The complete circulation in deep lakes will become more and more difficult to achieve in the future, with major repercussion for lake hydrodynamics and turnover. More energy is presently required than for the past mixing events and without the possibility of re-establishing the initial thermal conditions (Ambrosetti and Barbanti, 1999). Figure IV.B.2. Trends of the heat content in five deep Italian lakes. Values for Lake Orta on the right axis (from Ambrosetti and Barbanti, 1999) Direct and Indirect Effects of Temperature Changes The direct effect of the projected increases in the winter temperatures on the dynamics of lakes in the Atlantic Region is likely to be quite small. There will, however, be significant indirect effects on the flux of nutrients and the growth of plankton much later in the year. The biological effects of the increased surface temperatures and enhanced stability in summer depend on the physical characteristics of the individual lakes and, in particular, their maximum depth. The very high surface temperatures recoded in shallow lakes may well change the geographic distribution of some cold water species but most planktonic organisms have a cosmopolitan distribution. Most of these species already thrive at temperatures that are very much higher than those 65
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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