Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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The climate in the Atlantic Region is wet and relatively mild. Many of the larger lakes are situated near the coast so are either free of ice or only covered with ice for a few days a year. Precipitation gradients in the Atlantic Region are typically very steep and there is often a strong altitude (orographic) component to the rainfall. In the UK and Ireland, the most striking meteorological contrast is between the wet west and the dry east. These differences are most pronounced in winter where the average rainfall recorded between 1961 and 1990 ranged from more than 500 mm in the west to less than 200 mm in the east. Another important factor modulating the weather conditions experienced in the region is the trajectory of the Gulf Stream in the Atlantic. The warm water of the Gulf Stream reduces the severity of the winters experienced along the western seaboard whilst the position of its north wall influences the trajectory of storms in the western approaches (Taylor, 1996). The coastal climate in Northern France, Flanders and the lowlands of Belgium, the entire territory of The Netherlands, and the lowlands of the Northern Germany shows greater contrasts of temperature than the climate in Britain. Further east and south, in the uplands of eastern Belgium, Luxembourg and Central Germany, the distance from the sea and the sporadic occurrence of continental influences or modifications due to the relief in the neighborhood of mountain slopes, cause more pronounced annual ranges of temperature, mainly on account of the progressive lowering of winter temperatures. Winters are dry and relatively severe, and the absence of snowfall is unusual. The shortness of the intermediate seasons, autumn and spring, causes the transition to be more abrupt, and the contrasts of temperature more noticeable. The continental influence increases eastwards in the Northern Alpine Fore-land from the Swiss part eastwards to the Austrian part. The climate of the Northern Alpine Fore-land is in all parts mainly governed by the influence of the Alps. This is especially the case during northerly flow due to the upwind effects which are not so much a function of the relative difference in height but rather a function of the distance, windwards of the base of the Alps (Wallén, 1977). The mean annual cloud cover is as low as about 50% over the south slope of the Alps, but it amounts to 65% over the north slope (European Daylighting Atlas, 1996). The inner alpine regions are dry and have sunny valleys, and the scanty precipitation is rather uniformly distributed over the year. Valleys, which are oriented from west to east, receive considerably less precipitation, whereas the north south valleys may receive abundant rainfall due to hill effects with northwesterly flow. The Mediterranean climate has a typical seasonal rhythm strongly marked with respect to temperature, precipitation and weather in general. Hot dry summers from mid-May to mid-September and rainy, rather changeable, winters from November to mid-March are separated by short autumn and spring seasons of rapid change in weather conditions. Due to climatic reasons, water scarcity is a general concern in many Mediterranean countries. Broader variations in water resource availability across the Mediterranean region, corresponds to three geographic groupings (Margat and Vallé, 2000): Group 1: Mainly Northern Mediterranean countries (Portugal, Spain, France and Monaco, Italy, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Croatia, Slovenia, F.R. of Yugoslavia, Albania, Greece). Generally rich in water (above 3000 m 3 /year/cap) where total water demand is stable, or even decreasing, without quantity shortage problems (except for short periods of time, or drought cycles for localized areas), but having to face water 58
quality degradation and meet the increasing needs of environmental protection and restoration. Group 2: Western Mediterranean and Middle East countries (Turkey, Cyprus, Syria, Lebanon, Israel, Palestinian territories of Gaza and the West Bank, Jordan) have overall excess resources (1000 to 3000 m 3 /year/cap), but due to increasing demands these countries are more sensitive to short term or structural shortages. The average annual amount of precipitation e.g. in Cyprus is about 500 mm. The records available over the period 1917-2000 demonstrate a slight decrease in the precipitation since 1971 (Pashiardis, 2002). Negative correlation found between interannual variability of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices and the Turkish precipitation (Türkes, 2002) indicate that the NAO is one of the major atmospheric sources for the year-toyear and quasi-decadal variability of the precipitation conditions in the Eastern Mediterranean Basin. Group 3: Countries from North Africa, the Middle East, or islands (Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Malta) have limited water resources (less than 1000 m 3 /year/cap) that are already overexploited or are becoming so where demographic growth is strong. At present, countries in the north Mediterranean receive about 72% of regional precipitation compared to 23% for countries in the east and 5% for countries in the south. IV.B.4. The Climate Change Scenarios for Lakes In this review, conclusions are based on an ensemble of climate change scenarios produced by the Swedish Rossby Centre as a contribution to the PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) project (Räisänen et al., 2004). Simulations using two driving global models (HadAM3H and ECHAM4/OPYC3) and two IPCC SRES emission scenarios (A2 and B2) resulted in four realizations of climate change from 1961–1990 to 2071–2100. According to the latest climate change scenarios (Räisänen et al., 2004), the warming in Northern Europe will be largest in winter or late autumn. In Central and Southern Europe, the warming peaks in summer when it locally reaches 6 to 10˚C. The four simulations in general agree that the amount of precipitation will generally increase in Northern Europe especially in winter and decrease in Southern and Central Europe in summer. A large increase in the lowest minimum temperatures in northern, Central and Eastern Europe, are expected, most likely due to reduced snow cover. Extreme daily precipitation increases even in most of those areas where the mean annual precipitation decreases. The regional scenarios suggest that the mean annual air temperature in Sweden will increase by about 4°C within the next 100 years, depending on the ensemble of emission scenarios and general circulation models (2071-2100, see for details Räisänen et al. 2004). This is over 40 per cent more than the mean global change. The mean winter temperature is expected to rise by 3-5°C. The temperature rise in summer is expected to be somewhat lower 2 - 3°C (Räisänen et al., 2004). An application of the climate scenarios combined with a physical lake model on a lake in middle Sweden predicted that the lake will be totally ice free 2 years out of 10 (Blenckner et al., 2002). Additionally, the stratification period in summer will be longer and more distinct, which is likely to favour cyanobacterial blooms. In warmer 59
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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