Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

leading to projected further decrease of glaciers, ice-caps and extent of sea ice.
Temperature increase in Europe is consistent with the global trend, although natural
variations are larger (Figure VI.C.3).
Figure VI.C.3. Annual mean-temperature deviations in Europe (CRU, 2000).
Results from the IMAGE model (Alcamo et al., 1996) show a projected temperature
increase between 2 and 3 °C for most of Spain, and in particular for the Ebro
watershed (Figure VI.C.4). This is in agreement with projections from other studies.
Increased average temperature in the watershed will result in higher evaporation
losses, higher crop water requirements, and an overall increase in water resource
demand from all sectors (civil, agricultural, industrial). However, on the basis of
current knowledge, it is difficult to decouple pressures and impacts of increased
water demand due to climate change from those due to further development of
human activities (e.g. increased population, expansion of irrigated land, industrial
growth). For example, Ludwig et al. (2004) investigated the effect of recorded
increased temperatures on the hydrology of the Têt River (Southern France) and
concluded that, with increasing temperatures, humidity of Mediterranean origin
becomes more important for the hydroclimatic functioning of the watershed leading to
a downstream shift of precipitation in the basin and an increase of flood discharge
especially in the lower reaches.
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