Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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(cholera). Mosquito borne diseases are more influenced by ambient conditions than diseases transmitted directly from human to human. In fact, climate changes: • influence distribution and growth rate of vectors, • alter the geographic distribution of pests • temperature plays a determinant role in vector development, cutting the time necessary to develop from egg to adult and fastening the generation turn over (Kiska, 2000). However, temperature affects also pathogen development within the vector (Bouma et al., 1994): incubation period decreases and disease reproduces faster inside the pest carrier. VI.E. Vector-Borne Diseases Mosquitoes are among the first organisms to extend their range as climate change make new areas more accessible (Lindsay, 1996). The transmission of infectious diseases may rise as temperature grows warmer and insects migrate northward. As a consequence, diseases that are typically restricted to tropical and subtropical regions could become more common in northward areas. In North America, malaria and dengue fever are already among the new arrivals; Lyme disease already affects northern US regions (http://www.ccah.cpha.ca). Malaria has already appeared in Canada: during hot, humid period in 1990, locally transmitted malaria occurred in Toronto as well as in the northeastern (New York, New Jersey) and north central (Michigan) United States. It is estimated that 300-500 million people suffer from malaria every year (WHO, 1993), while over 2 billion people are considered at risk from contracting disease (Epstein, 2000) with a predicted 3°C rise in global temperature, an additional 50-80 million cases of malaria will occur each year. Since 1970 the height at which freezing occurs (the freezing isotherm) has climbed approximately 160m within the tropical belts, equivalent to almost 1°C warming (Diaz and Graham 1996). Insects and insect borne diseases are now being reported at high elevation in east and central Africa, Latin America and Asia. Malaria is nowadays detected in highland urban centers like Nairobi, and rural highlands in Papua New Guinea (Epstein et al., 1998). Dengue fever is a tropical disease caused by Arbovirus and transmitted by the bite of an infected mosquito (genus Aedes). There is no vaccine and the disease becomes increasingly fatal with successive infections. (Breslin, 1994). Outbreaks have so far been restricted to Central America but warming trends due to climate change would increase the range and frequency of dengue fever in North America. However concern arises because, although specific vector are involved in transmission of malaria and dengue fever, even local mosquitoes can become potential vectors and the cost of mosquito eradication would dramatically increase to control the spread of disease. 200
Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens and related health risk Health risk Pathogen Arthritis Campylobacter, Salmonella, Giardia Aseptic meningitis Coxsackievirus, new Enterovirus type 68 to 71 Cancer, peptic ulcer Helicobacter pylori Cholera Vibrio cholerae Diarrhea and gastroenteritis Enterovirus, Norwalk virus, calicivirus, rotavirus, E. coli O157 Criptosporidium, Salmonella, Giardia Heart disease Coxsackievirus B, Legionella pneumophila Diabetes Coxsackievirus B Kidney failure Hepatitis A virus, Legionella pneumophila Liver failure Hepatitis E virus Wound infection Vibrio Currently, the level of understanding of the linkages between water diseases and climate is lower than that for vector-borne diseases. Although the doomsday scenario in the thriller film The Day After Tomorrow may be far from reality, it is clear that climate is changing, challenging the health sector and the whole of human society. An interdisciplinary analysis, and integrated prevention planning are mandatory. Mathematical modeling of infectious diseases, (e.g. waterborne, vector-borne) in relation to climate is at the first stage to identify the key environmental and climate parameters associated with disease variability. Furthermore, how many potential pathogens are sharing this planet with us, awaiting the right conditions for their chance at stardom by becoming an emerging infectious disease? 201
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Page 239 and 240: 2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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