Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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• Provide relevant input to EU water policy makers on the impacts to the water sector (agriculture, urban centres, industrial and energy sectors, civil protection, spatial planning) under climate change scenarios. • Perform economic analyses of the costs of adapting to climate change in the water sector and analysis of the externalities of environmental systems under climate change impacts. • Most importantly, to develop and apply regional climate change models at the sub-regional and river basin scale to Asses potential response of land and water systems, and mitigation strategies with associated costs. Specifically in the water sector, to • Quantify at the European and river basin scale the impacts of climate change on water quality of surface water and GW, and water classification for river basin management by coupling river basin – coastal zone models in a climate changed world. • Quantify at the European and river basin scale the impacts of climate change on water quantity, its spatial-temporal distribution including extreme events such as floods and droughts, and availability of surface and GW under different scenarios and uses, and the associated costs of adaptation. • Evaluate the effectiveness of different protection measures in trans-national river basins with hydrological models as a response to possible increase in extreme events. • Evaluate the impacts of climate change on the re-mobilization, redistribution and emission of contaminants (chemical and microbiological) as a result of warming and extreme events. • Establish long term monitoring at the pan-European scale of marine and coastal systems using earth observing satellites and other tools of those parameters sensitive or indicative of climate change (SST, sea level rise, biomass, primary productivity, carbon cycles, wind fields, trophic state). We hope the Report contributes to the European discussions on climate change, its impacts and policy implications. The policy makers of Europe and worldwide have their hands full in coming years and decades, as the climate warms, as water resources become too spatially intensive or scarce, as ecological systems undergo serious and perhaps irreversible changes. Our policy makers will need considered input from all elements of society to address the important issues facing sustainable water use. As a final word, I wish to acknowledge all the co-authors of this Report for their willingness to contribute their time, knowledge and experience to an ‘extra’ activity of importance. Without the many co-authors, the preparationof this Report would not have been possible. 8 The Editor
Climate Change and the European Water Dimension Chapter I. Observations of Global Climate Change and its impact on the hydrological cycle Key Points • Average global temperature over land surfaces has risen by 0.6 ± 0.2°C in the period from 1861 to 2000. This temperature increase is unprecedented within the past millenium. • Observations show a non-uniform increase of about 2% in global land precipitation since the beginning of the 20 th century. More extreme precipitation events are observed. • Direct and indirect effects of aerosols appear to exert an important, but not fully understood, influence on radiative forcing and on the hydrological cycle. • The projected temperature increases over the 21 st century for the full set of scenarios developed by the IPCC for the TAR were in the range 1.4 to 5.8 0 C. • According to model predictions, precipitation at high latitudes will increase both summer and winter. Mean precipitation at subtropical latitudes will decrease while precipitation in most tropical areas will increase. • Projected sea level rises are in the range 0.09 to 0.88 m over the period from 1990 to 2100, however feedbacks and nonlinear effects may lead to an accelerated collapse of ice sheets and thus larger sea level rises. 9
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Page 7: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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