Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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Spatial network Network Modelling Curve Curve fitting Fitting Paleo - ecology Ecology Historical Expert judgement Judgement Figure V.C.1. Methods to establish reference conditions (from REFCOND Methods guidance, to establish 2003). Reference Conditions There are several ways to make the Reference Conditions flexible. Natural variation can be included within the RC by relating the latter to the natural causes of variability. In this case the procedure of setting reference conditions should include a multivariate analysis, which, instead of a single RC value would yield a table or a nomogramm showing the relationship of the quality parameter to the most important natural factors. Irriversible effects of human-induced climate change can be taken into account in a similar way as the natural causes of variability. Figure V.C.2. Long-term distribution of chlorophyll a in L. Võrtsjärv as a function of water level and season. Points show actual monthly values during the period 1982- 1998. 140 Methods not able to accommodate climate change impact Chl a scale, mg m -3 100 80 60 40 20 0
An example of this kind of relationships is given in Figure V.C.2. Chlorophyll concentration in the large shallow Lake Võrtsjärv (see Case Study) shows a marked seasonal variation. Water level in this lake carries the signal of the North Atlantic Oscillation and is the main driving factor in the ecosystem. Dropping of the water level below a certain threshold (-50 cm on the relative scale) results in an enormous increase of chlorophyll. The reasons for this increase are the improvement of light conditions (as the water layer becomes thinner), and stronger resuspension of the surface sediment. Resuspension has a dual effect on chlorophyll concentration: it has a direct effect by stirring up the microbenthic algae living on the sediment surface and the planktonic algae already settled out, but also an indirect effect by releasing the nutrients from the sediment to the water layer where they support new algal production. Including this natural variability already to RC of this lake substantially decreased the variability in ecological quality estimates and allowed chlorophyll values measured in different seasons to be used for quality assessment purposes. This method can most easily be used for working out site specific RC for water bodies which have a long investigation record. At the moment, a similar system of flexible RC has been applied on the 5 th largest lake in Europe, the transboundary Lake Peipsi shared between Estonia and Russia (Nõges and Nõges, 2003). Climate Change sets new requirements to the monitoring process. The methods currently used to monitor and model water bodies were developed when weather patterns were different from those experienced today. Most are based on a deterministic rather than a probabilistic approach and do not properly represent the ‘cascade of uncertainty’ associated with recent climate-change scenarios (CLIME, 2001). The future surveillance monitoring must be capable of detecting longterm changes in the water environment. For example, long-term climate changes and land cover changes could affect the condition of aquatic plants and animals in surface waters by increasing the frequency of droughts and floods. Information on such changes will be needed to avoid wrongly attributing their affects to other pressures. Climate change effects on aquatic ecosystems are not fully understood, and in many cases inherently unpredictable. Long-term monitoring of minimally impacted sites is highly important to measure and understand climate change effects on reference conditions. To advance our understanding of ecosystem responses to climate change, basic ecological research, especially sensitivity analyses at site-specific or sub-regional scales would still be needed. Direct extrapolation of observed species distributions in relation to present climate as a means for projecting future responses is inappropriate; such projections must include consideration of physiological tolerances, competition, and dispersal mechanisms (Halpina 1997). There is an urgent need to develop modelling tools to analyse and understand regional climatic changes, the underlying changes within these catchment systems, and the hydrochemical and ecological behaviour occurring in aquatic ecosystems. Better knowledge of these mechanisms would help to work out methods of mitigating the impacts of environmental change across Europe. V.C.3. European Research Projects Addressing Climate Change Impact on Implementation of the WFD In order to support the implementation of the Water Framework Directive, the European Commission has established a cluster on Integrated Catchment Water Modelling (CatchMod). The objective of this cluster is the development of common harmonised modelling tools and methodologies for the integrated management of water at river basin scales based on scenarios of climate change and other expected 141
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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European Commission- Joint Research
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At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
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Changes in the diurnal variation of
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Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
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century. This corresponds to a sea
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Other causes Other causes of climat
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tropospheric ozone are photochemica
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Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and
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There are two indirect effects of a
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The projected warming is not unifor
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water towards the west Pacific caus
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Aerosols and climate change in the
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precipitation intensities have been
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Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
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Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
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Figure III.4. Projected change in s
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eduction in the rate of evaporation
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characteristics may or may not be u
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temperatures potentially lead to hi
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Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
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Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
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correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
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Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
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numbers refer to water bodies bigge
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Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
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quality degradation and meet the in
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sufficient resolution and accuracy
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Windermere in the English Lake Dist
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their vertical structure. In partic
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have recently described a method th
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The available evidence suggests tha
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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Page 107 and 108: IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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Page 117 and 118: Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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Page 123 and 124: member states. Moreover some agenci
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Page 127 and 128: V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
Page 129 and 130: Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
Page 131 and 132: In European forest policy, water is
Page 133 and 134: Drought mitigation and the involvem
Page 135 and 136: DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Page 139: The quality class boundaries within
Page 145 and 146: Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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Page 149 and 150: Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
Page 153 and 154: Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
Page 155 and 156: Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Page 159 and 160: Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
Page 161 and 162: TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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