Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...
Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...
Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...
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Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Nitrogen emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
significant contribution (35% of <strong>the</strong> total). Phosphorus is released primarily by<br />
WWTPs <strong>and</strong> urban systems (64%), but <strong>the</strong> erosion, tile drainage <strong>and</strong> groundwater<br />
pathways are significant (31%). The modelling process shows, as expected, <strong>the</strong><br />
strong dependence of nutrient fluxes on <strong>the</strong> water balance.<br />
Table-VI.C.6: Assumptions adopted for <strong>the</strong> A, B, C scenarios for<br />
modelling nutrients dynamics in <strong>the</strong> Po Catchment.<br />
Scenario Hypo<strong>the</strong>sis 2025 2050 2100<br />
A<br />
Variation of Continental<br />
precipitation. [mm day -1 ]<br />
Heavy precipitation<br />
events:<br />
-0,25 -0,35 -0,50<br />
B % Increase in number of<br />
days with storm water<br />
events.<br />
Variation of maximum<br />
+15 % +30% +50%<br />
C Groundwater recharge<br />
value. [mm]<br />
1500 1000 700<br />
The selected scenarios hereafter analysed were based on IPCC scenarios (IPCC,<br />
2001) assuming a doubling of atmospheric CO2 by 2030. These scenarios were<br />
based on <strong>the</strong> projection of<br />
<strong>Change</strong>s in Total Emission<br />
<strong>Change</strong>s in Total Emission<br />
selected key parameters<br />
262,969<br />
- 2 %<br />
- 2.2%<br />
Nitrogen<br />
10,386<br />
- 0,2 % - 0,2% Phosophorus<br />
- 1%<br />
including temperature,<br />
precipitation, wind, air<br />
- 4.5%<br />
humidity, soil moisture as<br />
suggested in IPCC (2001)<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
<strong>and</strong> detailed in Table-<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Groundwater Pathway<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Groundwater Pathway VI.C.5 <strong>and</strong> Table-VI.C.6.<br />
95,830<br />
- 4.9 %<br />
- 6,1%<br />
- 12%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Overl<strong>and</strong> Flow Pathway<br />
4169<br />
- 8 %<br />
- 11%<br />
- 16%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Urban System Pathway<br />
24,091<br />
- 2 %<br />
- 1,4%<br />
- 1,6%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
959<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Erosion Pathway<br />
- 1,3 %<br />
- 2%<br />
- 3%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
862<br />
- 0,9 %<br />
- 2,4%<br />
186<br />
- 5,2%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Overl<strong>and</strong> flow Pathway<br />
383<br />
- 0,9 %<br />
- 2,4%<br />
- 5,2%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Emission <strong>Change</strong>s in Urban System Pathway<br />
3,010<br />
-1,9 % - 1,7% - 1,4%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
836<br />
Emission<strong>Change</strong>s in Erosion Pathway<br />
-1,3 %<br />
- 2%<br />
- 3%<br />
2000 2025 2050 2100<br />
Figure-VI.C.8: Effects of precipitation changes on nutrients<br />
emission assuming <strong>the</strong> 2001 as reference year.<br />
Phosphorous emission [Mg y -1 ]<br />
Scenario A<br />
Projected total emission<br />
(in 2100) of nitrogen<br />
<strong>and</strong> phosphorus show a<br />
4.5% <strong>and</strong> 1% reduction,<br />
respectively. Although <strong>the</strong><br />
overall N <strong>and</strong> P projected<br />
reductions are small <strong>the</strong>ir<br />
relative variation for each<br />
transport pathway can be<br />
substantial.<br />
Transport by <strong>the</strong> overl<strong>and</strong><br />
flow <strong>and</strong> groundwater<br />
pathways show a relevant<br />
decrease for both nutrients<br />
with a decrease in<br />
precipitation, this effect is<br />
primarily caused by a<br />
reduction of runoff into<br />
rivers affecting <strong>the</strong><br />
nitrogen mobility within <strong>the</strong><br />
soil. Meanwhile, <strong>the</strong> urban