Climate Change and the European Water Dimension - Agri ...

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adiation and thereby contribute to greenhouse warming. The balance between the radiative cooling and warming influences of clouds depend on several factors, such as their liquid water content, cloud droplet (or crystal) equivalent radius and phase (liquid or ice). Clouds in the boundary layer are particularly important in this context, because their albedo effect is not compensated for by a significant greenhouse effect. It is clear that global warming caused by radiative forcing of greenhouse gases will, in turn, have an impact on clouds and thus lead to a change in cloud radiative forcing. However, the understanding of this feedback remains still very uncertain; and models even disagree about the sign of the expected net change in cloud radiative forcing e.g. associated with a doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. Climate Sensitivity A quantitative estimate of the warming for a given radiative forcing is expressed by the climate sensitivity, which is defined by the IPCC as the ratio between the rise in global surface temperature, ΔTs for a given radiative forcing, ΔF: ΔTs/ ΔF = λ. The climate sensitivity depends on the feedbacks, mainly related to the hydrological components such as water vapour, ice albedo, lapse rate, clouds (see below). These feedback effects can be of considerably larger magnitude than the initial forcing. In addition to these physical feedbacks, there are biogeochemical feedbacks such as the influence of increased CO2 concentrations on the uptake of CO2 by vegetation. The climate sensitivity, defined as the equilibrium response of global surface temperature to a doubling of the CO2 concentration, estimated by applying different AOCGMs, lies in the range of 1.5 to 4.5 0 C. Recent studies of climate sensitivity point to a most likely value of around 3°C (see e.g. Kerr, 2004). The uncertainty on the climate sensitivity makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty on projections of future climate change. Aerosols, climate and the hydrological cycle Aerosols can influence the radiative balance of the Earth directly by scattering of incoming sunlight as well as by absorption of radiation. In addition they exhibit indirect effects on climate through their interaction with clouds. The estimates of the effects of aerosols represent some of the main uncertainties in the present understanding of climate change (Figure I.4). 20
Figure. I.4. Radiative forcings and their uncertainties according to the IPCC (2001) The climate impact of aerosols depend on their chemical composition and their size distribution, which has a strong influence on their atmospheric life times as well as their capacity to scatter light. The most important influence comes from aerosols in the accumulation mode, i.e. between 0.1 and 1 μm mass median diameters; smaller particles coagulate rapidly and deposition or formation of cloud droplets efficiently removes larger particles. Accumulation mode aerosol has atmospheric lifetimes up to several weeks. Atmospheric aerosols are directly emitted (primary aerosols) as well as formed by gas to particle conversion following chemical reactions in the atmosphere (so-called secondary aerosols). Particles are modified in the atmosphere by physical as well as chemical mechanisms (coagulation, condensation, cloud processing, etc.). Important sources of primary aerosol are soil dust, sea salt, industrial dust and carbonaceous aerosols (organic and black carbon) as well as primary biogenic aerosol. Black carbon aerosols from fossil fuel or biomass burning are of particular relevance because of their capacity to absorb light and thus contribute to heating of the atmosphere. Secondary aerosol frequently derives from oxidation of sulphur dioxide or natural organic sulphur compounds (such as DMS) to sulphuric acid, from the oxidation of natural and anthropogenically emitted volatile organic compounds (VOCs such as terpenes, aromatics) as well as from the formation of ammonium nitrate following the oxidation of NOx to nitric acid. Volcanoes are an important source of primary dust aerosol as well as sulphur dioxide in the atmosphere. 21
Page 1 and 2: Climate Change and the European Wat
Page 3 and 4: European Commission- Joint Research
Page 7 and 8: At the 2003 Rome Informal Meeting o
Page 11 and 12: Changes in the diurnal variation of
Page 13 and 14: Fugure I.2. (a) Maximum grid covera
Page 15 and 16: century. This corresponds to a sea
Page 17 and 18: Other causes Other causes of climat
Page 19: tropospheric ozone are photochemica
Page 23 and 24: There are two indirect effects of a
Page 25 and 26: The projected warming is not unifor
Page 27 and 28: water towards the west Pacific caus
Page 31 and 32: Aerosols and climate change in the
Page 33 and 34: precipitation intensities have been
Page 35 and 36: Chapter III. The Hydrologic Cycle I
Page 37 and 38: Figure III.2. Long-term average ann
Page 39 and 40: Figure III.4. Projected change in s
Page 41 and 42: eduction in the rate of evaporation
Page 43 and 44: characteristics may or may not be u
Page 45 and 46: temperatures potentially lead to hi
Page 47 and 48: Chapter IV.A. Proxy indicators of C
Page 49 and 50: Mean Air Temperature (Dec.-March) [
Page 51 and 52: correlation coefficient -0.4 -0.3 -
Page 53 and 54: Chapter IV. B. The Impact of Climat
Page 55 and 56: numbers refer to water bodies bigge
Page 57 and 58: Table IV.B.2. Number of large dams*
Page 59 and 60: quality degradation and meet the in
Page 61 and 62: sufficient resolution and accuracy
Page 63 and 64: Windermere in the English Lake Dist
Page 65 and 66: their vertical structure. In partic
Page 67 and 68: have recently described a method th
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1979). In contrast, heavy rain incr
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The projected increase in the atmos
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Aulacoseira spp. favour the changed
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vertical bars are a simple measure
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values, with an upper limit of 30°
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Climate Change and the European Wat
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the processes controlling, regional
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Sea level rise is partially due to
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Box # 1: The North Sea The North Se
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and organic material more rapidly t
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suggesting that climate rather than
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CO2 2- ). In turn, the alkalinity i
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looms are often associated with tox
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events of dense water through the D
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(1) Are we already observing a resp
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eastern and western side of the Nor
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system, their physiology and intern
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each coastal element be studied and
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IV.D.1. Introduction Coastal lagoon
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In the last decade, a general model
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topics in coastal lagoons (de Wit e
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Po River Delta lagoons, the long dr
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esilient to environmental changes a
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Chapter V.A. Climate Change and Ext
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It is realized that adaptation to c
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member states. Moreover some agenci
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Large, global scale climatic driver
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V.B.5. Climate change and droughts
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Evacuation from forest fires at Mas
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In European forest policy, water is
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Drought mitigation and the involvem
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DSS-DROUGHT A Decision Support Syst
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Chapter V .C. Climate Change, Ecolo
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The quality class boundaries within
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An example of this kind of relation
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Regions 1 to 5 represent mainly a m
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een observed in southwestern countr
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Table V.D.2: Percentage area affect
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Lake Surface Temperature [°C] Desc
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Case Study: Esthwaite Water, Cumbri
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Residence time (days) Chlorophyll (
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Case Study: Lake Erken, Sweden ►
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TP (µg l -1 ) Modelling To analyse
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Data availability and investigation
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smaller volume of water. The warmer
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Chapter VI.B. Climate Change and th
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Concerning the flora of the lagoon
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Figure VI.B.2: Frequency of “bora
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Figure VI.C.2. Daily flows in Ebro
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Figure VI.C.4. Mean temperature inc
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factors including an appropriate su
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with the lower limit range indicate
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Chapter VI.C. The Effects of Climat
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the main carrier of nutrients to gr
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system pathway shows an increase of
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Table-VI.C.7: Main factors and cons
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Chapter VI.D. Climate Change and th
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Atmospheric deposition to marine wa
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Many studies during the 90’s have
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severe flooding were investigated (
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Table VI.E.1. Waterborne pathogens
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Chapter VI.F. Climate Change, Extre
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Areas behind the dikes broken in 20
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Second, the chemical is transported
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POPs exist in the atmosphere in the
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and ice have quite a low capacity t
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Table VI.F.1. Priority substances i
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22. Monteith, J.L., 1965. Evaporati
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31. Rodionov, S.N. 1994. Global and
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28. Dokulil, M.T., 2003. Algae as e
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63. Hejzlar, J., Dubrovský, M. Buc
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99. Melack, J.M., J. Dozier, C.R. G
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136. Straile, D. & Adrian, R. 2000.
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14. Blaas, M., Kerkhoven, D., and d
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60. McCleery, R. H. and Perrins, C.
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105. UNESCO 2003. The integrated st
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ecosystems and the landscape and de
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2. Carter, T.R., Saarikko, R.A., an
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24. Hydrographisches Zentralbüro 1
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European Coastal Lagoons: The Influ
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4. Bouma MJ, Sondrop HE, van der Ka
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variable trophic status: a paired l
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France GIANMARCO GIORDANI Departmen
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Chapter VI.E. Climate Change and Wa
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